An 8:30 report can revise years of inflation data after a hard week for bonds
July's 3.7% inflation rate can be restated at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, September 30, along with official figures back to early 2021, after the long-term Treasury fund fell 4.3% over five sessions.
Key takeaways
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, the government will publish a new inflation reading and reopen years of the official record behind it. The release arrives after a hard week for long-term bonds.
Two reports arrive together. One covers August income, spending, and the personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses. The other is the third estimate of second-quarter growth, the last regular look at that quarter.
The same morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis starts a revision of national, industry, and regional figures, all on one day for the first time. For most of those statistics, the revision runs from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026.
The long Treasury fund fell for six sessions
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, September 16, to 3.75% to 4%, in a 12-0 vote. The 2-year Treasury yield is the fair comparison with that range, because it covers the next couple of years of policy. It finished Tuesday at 4.89%, 0.89 percentage points above the top of the new range.
The 30-year yield finished Tuesday at 5.59%, and the 10-year yield at 5.26%. The 30-year is the closer match for TLT, the fund that holds Treasurys maturing in 20 years or more.
The fund has fallen for six sessions in a row and is down 4.3% over the past five.
TLT closed lower in each of the last six sessions
On Tuesday it traded more than twice its usual volume.
HYG, the fund that holds high-yield corporate bonds, is down 1.7% over five sessions, and LQD, the fund that holds investment-grade corporate bonds, is down 2.6%. Tuesday's trading in both was heavier than usual.
Before the opening bell, TLT was quoted about 0.2% above Tuesday's close. After six down sessions, that is a pause, not a reversal. SPY, the fund that holds the S&P 500, was quoted about 0.1% below Tuesday's close of $764.20, after falling 0.2% on Tuesday and 1.2% over five sessions.
Oil recovers only part of Tuesday's drop
U.S. crude was at $90.71 a barrel around 7:10 a.m. Eastern, up 1.5%, and Brent was at $97.61, also up 1.5%. USO, the fund that follows U.S. crude prices, was quoted about 1.8% higher, a little more than the rise in the commodity itself. The fund fell 4.4% on Tuesday, so the morning move recovers less than half of that drop.
Tuesday's fall came as crude supply from the Middle East recovered. President Trump wrote on Monday, September 28, that he had offered Iran nothing.
"This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING."
We would not hang this morning's rise on that denial. It was already public when USO fell on Tuesday.
July's 3.7% rate can be rewritten
July's inflation rate, published on Wednesday, August 26, was 3.7% from a year earlier, and 3.3% excluding food and energy. Those annual rates were the same in June. In July, prices rose 0.2% from the month before, on both the headline index and the index that leaves out food and energy.
Second-quarter growth was last estimated at 1.5% at an annual rate, after 2.1% in the first quarter. Those were the latest growth estimate and the latest reading of the Fed's inflation gauge when it raised rates. This morning's third estimate can change the 1.5% figure, and the income-and-spending release can revise the 3.7% rate.
The agency is also changing how it measures prices for investment-management fees, legal services, and software. For legal services, it is replacing a series it said had turned erratic and could not be checked against other data.
Whether 8:30 revises the inflation and growth figures the Fed had when it raised rates is the morning's open question.
Frequently asked
What comes out at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday?
Two reports arrive together: August income, spending and the PCE price index, and the third estimate of second-quarter growth.
How far back can the official figures be revised?
For most of those statistics, the revision runs from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026.
How hard was the week for long-term bonds?
The fund that holds Treasurys maturing in 20 years or more fell for six sessions in a row and is down 4.3% over the past five.
Can Wednesday change the inflation rate the Fed just used?
The income-and-spending release can revise July's 3.7% rate, the latest reading of the Fed's inflation gauge when it raised rates.
