Both of China's activity gauges crossed back above 50 in September
China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 and its non-manufacturing PMI to 50.2 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
Key takeaways
Both of China's official activity gauges crossed back above 50 in September, and the surprise was services and construction, not factories.
The official manufacturing PMI, a monthly survey of factories, rose to 50.1 from 49.8, matching a poll of 29 economists, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. The non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, rose to 50.2 from 49.0. A reading above 50 means more firms reported growth than decline from the month before.
Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China, had expected the non-manufacturing reading at 49.2 and called the result a surprise. He said the figures suggest a modest pickup in September activity.
Construction rose 3.4 points to 50.3 from 46.9. Services, on their own, rose to 50.2 from 49.3. Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the statistics bureau's services survey center, said telecommunications and insurance were each above 55, while property remained weak.
The factory gain was in output, not in orders or hiring. Production rose 1.3 points to 51.7 from 50.4. New orders slipped to 50.5 from 50.6, new export orders fell to 50.0 from 50.1, and employment fell to 48.4 from 48.7.
Large firms held at 50.6. Medium firms rose to 49.7 and small firms rose a full point to 48.9, so the firms that improved were still below 50.
"Manufacturing has been a relative strength this year, though it has mostly been driven by external demand as domestic consumption and investment lag," wrote Lynn Song.
That describes the year. September's gain was not in new export orders.
Easing weather let factories resume, and a global boom in artificial intelligence supported industry.
Huo said 12 of 21 manufacturing industries were above 50, four more than in August. High-tech manufacturing was at 52.5, equipment makers at 51.0 and consumer-goods makers at 50.7. Energy-intensive industries, the heavy users of fuel, were at 48.0.
Costs rose faster than what factories charge. The reading for raw-material prices rose 4.2 points to 60.8, and the reading for prices factories charge rose 3.6 points to 54.0.
Huo said both had risen for a second month, citing higher global commodity prices and stronger demand in some industries. She tied a sharp rise in crude oil to fuel processing and chemical makers, whose price indexes rose above 60.
On Monday, the bureau said profits at industrial firms grew 4.2% in August from a year earlier, slowing from 11.2% in July.
Mainland stock markets close on Thursday, October 1, and stay closed through Wednesday, October 7. They reopen on Thursday, October 8, so Wednesday's session is the one that can trade this release.
Frequently asked
What did the two official gauges actually print?
Manufacturing rose to 50.1 from 49.8, and non-manufacturing rose to 50.2 from 49.0.
Why was the services and construction reading a surprise?
Lynn Song of ING had expected non-manufacturing at 49.2 and called the result a surprise.
Did new factory orders drive the manufacturing gain?
No: production rose to 51.7, while new orders slipped to 50.5 and new export orders fell to 50.0.
When can mainland stocks trade this release?
Markets close on October 1 and reopen on October 8, so Wednesday's session is the one that can trade it.
