---
title: "Brazil ETF indicated 26% lower after Lula wins the runoff"
url: "https://etf.net/news/brazil-etf-seen-down-on-lula-2026-10-26"
published_at: "2026-10-26T11:25:52.712Z"
updated_at: "2026-10-26T11:25:52.712Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# Brazil ETF indicated 26% lower after Lula wins the runoff

Markets had bet on Flávio Bolsonaro after he led the first round. U.S. stock funds were little changed before the open, with oil lower and earnings and a Federal Reserve decision still ahead.

By ETF.net Research. Published Oct 26, 2026.

BlackRock's iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ was indicated **26%** lower before the New York open after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff.

At 7:08 a.m. ET, buyers were willing to pay $31.57 and sellers were asking $31.64, against Friday's close of $42.59. The two sides are only a few cents apart, and neither figure is the official opening price. Reuters reported that premarket trading had already taken the fund down 26%, and that November futures on Brazil's currency, the real, were down more than 10%.

Reuters said the result upended investor bets on a right-wing victory. Markets had rallied this month, Reuters said, after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, unexpectedly led the first round, on expectations of a shift to the right. Brazilian stocks closed Friday almost 7% above their level before that round, Reuters said.

Chart: EWZ **jumped** on Oct. 5 and held the gain through Friday

On those figures, this morning's indication is a much larger move than that rally in Brazilian stocks.

With nearly all ballots counted Sunday, Lula won a fourth term, with 51.8% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%, [CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/brazil-lula-win-presidential-election-runoff-vote.html), citing Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede. Reuters reported he would ask for the result to be annulled over a Supreme Court justice's decision to extend voting by two hours. Analysts told Reuters a gap of more than 4 million votes makes an annulment unlikely.

## U.S. stock funds were little changed

Before the open, the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY and the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ were little changed from Friday's closes.

West Texas Intermediate crude was $101.08 a barrel at 7:08 a.m. ET, down 2.1% from Friday's settle. Reuters said oil fell after last week's surge but still held near six-month highs, on hopes of easing hostilities between the United States and Iran, after Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday. Attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Iran-backed Houthis were still keeping investors wary, Reuters said.

About one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, Reuters said.

The Federal Reserve's rate decision is due Wednesday, and a pause is widely expected after September's increase, Reuters said.

Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/brazil-etf-seen-down-on-lula-2026-10-26. Please cite the page URL.