--- title: "Delta cuts its 2026 profit outlook as fuel costs outpace higher fares" url: "https://etf.net/news/delta-cuts-its-2026-profit-outlook-as-fuel-costs-outpace-higher-fares-2026-10-09" published_at: "2026-10-09T12:20:51.109Z" updated_at: "2026-10-09T12:20:51.109Z" byline: "ETF.net Research" --- # Delta cuts its 2026 profit outlook as fuel costs outpace higher fares Delta Air Lines on Friday, October 9, cut its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10 to $5.60 a share, from $6.50 to $7.50 in July, after fuel costs outpaced higher fares. By ETF.net Research. Published Oct 9, 2026. Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook on Friday morning to **$5.10 to $5.60** a share, from $6.50 to $7.50 in July. The midpoint fell 24%, from $7 to $5.35. Erik Snell, the chief financial officer, told reporters the reduction came from higher prices for crude oil and for refined jet fuel since the summer. "All of it's fuel," he said. Around 7:40 a.m. Eastern time, before the U.S. market opened, Delta shares were quoted at $79.80, halfway between the buying and selling prices, down 2.8% from Thursday's close. The new midpoint sat just under the $5.46 average of analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, already below the range Delta set in July. On our read, that average had already covered most of the drop from July's $7 midpoint. The fuel bill Snell described showed up in the September quarter. Adjusted fuel expense rose 62%, to $4.14 billion, and Delta paid $3.61 a gallon, against $2.25 a year earlier. The bill ran more than $500 million above the early-July plan, which had assumed about $3.15 a gallon. Adjusted earnings were $1.72 a share, in line with a year earlier but short of both Delta's own $2.00 to $2.50 projection and the $1.75 analyst estimate compiled by LSEG. It was the first time in two years Delta had missed that estimate. The margin, operating profit as a share of adjusted revenue, was 9.4%, under the 11% to 13% forecast from July. Non-fuel unit costs rose 7.3%. Higher crew costs were a main reason, and summer storms accounted for nearly one percentage point of the increase. Snell attributed the cut in the annual outlook to fuel alone. The company did not publish how much of that cut came from fuel and how much from other costs. Delta said September-quarter revenue was a record, on broad demand and higher fares. Adjusted revenue was $17.6 billion, up about 16% from a year earlier, even though the airline offered about the same number of seats. Ed Bastian, the chief executive, said fares kept rising as Delta passed along much of the higher fuel cost. "The consumer response continues to be quite strong," Bastian said. "We're seeing it across all channels, all cabins of service, all geographies, business, leisure." With almost 60% of the fourth quarter already booked, Snell said revenue should grow about 20% from a year earlier. For the fourth quarter, Delta is using a fuel price of about $4.25 a gallon, based on prices for later delivery as of Friday, October 2. That is well above the $3.61 of the quarter just ended. If fuel stays near that price, Delta expects earnings of $1.15 to $1.65 a share and a margin of 7% to 9%. The midpoint, $1.40, is roughly in line with the $1.39 average from the same LSEG survey. Bastian said Delta should earn roughly $4.5 billion before tax this year while absorbing a $6 billion increase in fuel costs from 2025. Delta also cut its outlook for free cash flow, the cash left after investment in the business, to about $2.5 billion, from $3 billion to $4 billion in July. The $4.25 assumption sits in a market still being set by the war the United States and Israel are fighting with Iran, now in its eighth month. The fighting has disrupted supplies of jet fuel and other refined products, and attacks on ships have increased this month in the Strait of Hormuz, a lane that carried about 20% of the world's oil and fuel before the war. Hurricane Isaias has shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, with landfall expected Friday night or early Saturday. Oil rose about 4% on Thursday, the day President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. By Friday morning, Brent crude, the global benchmark, was at $102.72 a barrel, down 1.5% from Thursday. That dip does not change the October 2 prices in Delta's forecast. Chart: Brent spiked to **$104** Thursday, then eased Friday "Ultimately, fuel will come down," Snell said. "When that is, we're not exactly sure." Southwest said in September that higher fuel prices had led it to cut roughly in half the growth planned for its 2026 schedule, and that it might cut more if fuel stayed high. Delta's new outlook did not include a cut like that. Whether travelers keep absorbing further fare increases, if fuel stays as high as Delta has planned for the fourth quarter, is what the next airline results will test. Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/delta-cuts-its-2026-profit-outlook-as-fuel-costs-outpace-higher-fares-2026-10-09. Please cite the page URL.