---
title: "Fed pencils in 4.1% through 2027 after first hike since 2023"
url: "https://etf.net/news/fed-pencils-in-4-1-through-2027-after-first-hike-since-2023-2026-09-17"
published_at: "2026-09-17T11:23:41.731Z"
updated_at: "2026-09-17T11:23:41.731Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# Fed pencils in 4.1% through 2027 after first hike since 2023

Thursday, September 17, 2026: the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% and lifted the median year-end rate to 4.1% for 2026 and 2027, with core PCE at 3.4%.

By ETF.net Research. Published Sep 17, 2026.

Chairman Kevin Warsh's committee [voted 12-0](https://etf.net/news/fed-drops-energy-shock-inflation-line-raises-rates-in-unanimous-vote-2026-09-16) on Wednesday to lift the federal-funds target to **3.75%–4.00%**, the first increase since 2023, and the new projections put the median year-end rate at **4.1%** in both 2026 and 2027. That is up from 3.8% and 3.6% in June, and the committee still sees core PCE inflation at **3.4%** in 2026. "The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long," Warsh said. He said he would be "hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," a view "widely shared by the Committee," and that the hike "removed a dose of accommodation."

The 10-year Treasury yield was **5.01%** on Wednesday's official curve, above the **4.1%** funds rate now projected through 2027, with the 2-year at **4.74%** and the 30-year at **5.35%**. The S&P 500 still fell 0.45% to 7,551.81, and the S&P 500 fund SPY closed 0.4% lower on its heaviest volume in 20 sessions, the third decline in a row. Extended-hours prints as of about 6:55 a.m. Eastern have the same fund **0.8%** higher, more than reversing Wednesday's drop. The long Treasury fund TLT is 0.4% higher with it.

## Goldman, American Express, IBM and Boeing cut the Dow

The Nasdaq-100 closed 0.02% higher at 28,945.06 while the Dow industrials dropped **1.2%**, or 631 points, to 51,461.90.

Chart: The Dow fund **broke lower** into the hike

Goldman Sachs, the largest holding in the Dow industrials fund DIA at 11.1%, fell **4.0%**. American Express, IBM, and Boeing each dropped between 3.7% and 4.4%. The Russell 2000 lost 0.40%. Overnight the four index funds are all higher, the Dow fund included.

Table: Fund, Wednesday, Premarket

The CBOE Volatility Index is at **15.97**, down **9.8%** from Wednesday's close.

Energy was Wednesday's weakest sleeve. The energy sector fund XLE fell **2.9%** on its heaviest volume in 20 sessions. The financials fund XLF dropped 1.6%, its largest absolute move in 30 sessions, and is on a three-session decline of its own.

Chart: Only **energy** and financials lost more than 1%

[West Texas Intermediate](https://etf.net/news/the-fed-is-expected-to-hike-with-oil-still-above-100-2026-09-16) is at **$100.70** a barrel, down 1.7% this morning, still above $100 after the oil fund USO lost **3.5%** on Wednesday. Brent is at $103.53, down 2.2%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 finished 0.33% higher at 64,136.25. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.44% and Shanghai's composite 0.41%. Germany's DAX is up 0.54% and the Euro STOXX 50 0.63%.

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at **3.75%** at 7 a.m. Eastern. Governor Andrew Bailey said higher global energy costs have so far had a limited effect on UK prices and wages, but that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely the Bank will need to raise rates. The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting is underway, with the policy statement due Friday.

## Amazon's generator deal sends Generac 35% higher

Backup-power maker Generac is **35%** higher in extended trading after disclosing a long-term agreement to supply generators for Amazon data centers. Initial deliveries are expected to total about **$2.4 billion** in 2027 and 2028. Amazon received a warrant to buy up to 1.69 million Generac shares at $200.93: about 308,000 shares vested immediately, and the rest vest as Amazon's payments for the generators rise toward **$8 billion**. The customer bought the machines and a call on the manufacturer.

Energy-storage company Fluence Energy is **22%** lower after cutting fiscal 2026 guidance. It now expects revenue of about **$2.4 billion**, versus a prior midpoint of about $3.0 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of about **$200 million**, versus a prior midpoint loss of about $10 million. Chief executive Julian Nebreda pointed to delays ramping a contract-manufacturing plant in Houston.

## Lennar cut deliveries on rate pressure; housing starts print at 8:30 a.m.

At 8:30 a.m. the Census Bureau publishes August building permits, housing starts, and completions. July starts ran at a **1.239 million** seasonally adjusted annual rate, 12.4% below June. The Philadelphia Fed's September manufacturing survey prints at the same time. Economists put the general-activity index at **32.6**, inside a 10-to-47 range, after August's **47.4**, the highest since April 2021.

Homebuilder Lennar reported third-quarter diluted earnings of $1.19 a share, or $1.23 excluding mark-to-market losses on technology investments and one-time financial-services items, on $8.0 billion of revenue. New orders fell **9%** to 20,879 homes. Deliveries fell 3% to 20,840. The company cut its full-year delivery target to about **80,000–81,000** homes from 82,000–83,000 last quarter, citing rate pressure and weaker conditions. The stock is **2.3%** lower in extended trading.

The 8:30 a.m. starts print is the official count of whether that weakness is already in the housing data. A rebound from July would support the overnight bid in SPY: the economy can take a **4.1%** funds rate. Another down month, or a Philadelphia index nearer 10 than 47, would say the 5% ten-year is already doing the work, and Wednesday's sellers had the better read.

Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/fed-pencils-in-4-1-through-2027-after-first-hike-since-2023-2026-09-17. Please cite the page URL.