---
title: "French harmonized inflation rises to 3.4%, above forecasts"
url: "https://etf.net/news/french-harmonized-inflation-rises-to-3-4-above-forecasts-2026-09-30"
published_at: "2026-09-30T12:09:58.878Z"
updated_at: "2026-09-30T12:09:58.878Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# French harmonized inflation rises to 3.4%, above forecasts

INSEE said on Wednesday, September 30, that France's harmonized inflation rose to 3.4% in September, from 2.6% in August.

By ETF.net Research. Published Sep 30, 2026.

France's preliminary harmonized inflation rose to **3.4%** in September, INSEE, the national statistics office, said on Wednesday. The harmonized index is the measure used to compare prices across euro-area countries. In August it was 2.6%.

The reading came in above every estimate in a poll of 19 economists. They had expected 3.1% on average, and the highest forecast was 3.3%. France's own consumer price index, a separate measure, rose 3.0% from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in August and above a 2.8% forecast.

Prices fell over the month. The harmonized index fell 0.4% from August. Economists had expected a 0.5% fall.

## Where the rise came from

INSEE said energy prices accelerated, driven by petroleum products and gas. Energy was up 21.2% from a year earlier, compared with 16.7% in August. In September 2025, energy prices were down 4.4%.

Fresh food prices rose 9.9% from a year earlier. Food as a whole was up 1.5%. Services prices were 2.2% higher than a year earlier, INSEE said, because the seasonal fall in prices for places to stay and for transport was smaller than in September 2025.

Manufactured goods were still cheaper than a year earlier, by 0.3%.

Spain reported a higher reading on Tuesday. INE, Spain's statistics office, estimated harmonized inflation at 5.0% in September, up from 4.6% in August. It said fuel for personal vehicles rose, after falling in September 2025.

## No rate decision on Wednesday

The European Central Bank does not set rates on Wednesday. Wednesday's meeting of the Governing Council, which decides monetary policy, is not a rate-setting meeting.

The deposit rate, what the ECB pays banks on overnight cash, is 2.5%. The bank raised it by 25 basis points, a quarter of a percentage point, on Thursday, September 10. The new rate took effect on Wednesday, September 16.

The next decision is on Thursday, October 29. On September 10, when it last raised rates, the ECB said:

"The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period."

The target is 2%. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank would decide one meeting at a time, depending on the data.

Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, publishes its first estimate of September inflation for the euro area on Friday, October 2. Economists expect 3.6%, compared with 3.2% in August. INSEE's final September figures come on Thursday, October 15.

The French figure does not change the rate today. Friday's euro-area number is what shows how far September's rise spread.

Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/french-harmonized-inflation-rises-to-3-4-above-forecasts-2026-09-30. Please cite the page URL.