G7 pledges 100 million barrels, and how much is new is open

Group of Seven leaders pledged on Friday to move 100 million barrels over four months, with a substantial diesel release in the first 20 days.

Two diplomats suggested the announcement was a reaffirmation of the March commitment to make 400 million barrels available. If they are right, Friday's barrels are oil already promised, now put on a clock. The statement says the group will implement its commitments, taking account of promises already kept, through the International Energy Agency, and begin immediately.

In its September report, the IEA said global oil stocks fell 95 million barrels in August alone. The 100 million barrels, spread over four months, are about the size of that one month.

In 2022, two collective actions by IEA members amounted to 182.7 million barrels. That was, at the time, the largest emergency stock release those countries had made.

Diesel is the fuel the leaders put first. As of September 28, Kpler's seven-day average put refined-product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz at 677,000 barrels a day, against 3.6 million before the war. Crude shipments were back at the prewar rate of 13.5 million barrels a day.

The gap in those product shipments is about 2.9 million barrels a day. Kpler measured barrels moving through the strait, and the count covers every refined product, not diesel by itself.

The statement calls for ships to pass freely through the strait again, and it condemns Iran's attacks and its disruption of energy trade.

Russia has extended a ban on diesel exports by its fuel producers through the end of October. That keeps those exports off the market in the same weeks the release is meant to add fuel.

Each side described a different deal

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said he was still considering a ban on diesel exports. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told European partners what Washington wanted.

"Our European partners should accelerate delivery on their existing commitments and make additional supplies immediately available."

The same day, people close to the discussions said the administration had told France and Germany to draw down emergency diesel or face a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports.

On Friday, Trump said the diesel would come from Europe.

"Europe has just agreed to release a massive amount of their heavily stocked Diesel Oil. The process will begin immediately."

The statement assigns that early diesel release to G7 members and the countries working with them.

President Emmanuel Macron, who holds the G7 presidency, said the tone of the discussion "was not one of threats; it was constructive." He said Trump had been "very clear" that there would be no export ban. The European Commission said on Friday that it rejected any such ban. The statement pledges that G7 countries will not restrict exports of energy or energy products to one another, and it asks all producers not to add bans of their own. The ban was not imposed.

The leaders also said they would time refinery maintenance so G7 plants do not all shut at once, and run more oil through those plants where they can.

By 11:40 a.m. Eastern time, U.S. heating-oil futures, the contract the market uses for diesel, were at $4.46 a gallon, down 4% from Thursday's close. West Texas Intermediate crude had traded as low as $88.03 and was at $90.20 a barrel, down 2.9% from Thursday's close. Brent crude was at $100.69, down 1.6%. The United States Oil Fund BUSO, which holds near-term futures on West Texas Intermediate crude, was down 3.2%.

How many of the early barrels are diesel, and what each country will give, is still unstated. A French proposal earlier on Friday, 50 million barrels of diesel and 50 million of crude, did not become the split the leaders published.

Leaders will meet in the coming days, through the IEA, to discuss further diesel releases, and they have asked for a report within 20 days on how the stocks should be refilled.