---
title: "September housing starts fall short of forecasts"
url: "https://etf.net/news/housing-starts-miss-forecasts-2026-10-20"
published_at: "2026-10-20T14:13:13.225Z"
updated_at: "2026-10-20T14:13:13.225Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# September housing starts fall short of forecasts

Starts fell to a 1.221 million annual pace, short of a 1.305 million forecast, though the Census Bureau did not call the decline from August statistically significant.

By ETF.net Research. Published Oct 20, 2026.

U.S. housing starts missed forecasts in September, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of **1.221 million**, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026. The figure is a yearly pace, adjusted for the typical seasonal pattern, not the number of homes started in September.

A survey of forecasters published by Econoday had expected 1.305 million. The report was 84,000 below that rate, and 5.2% under August's revised rate of 1.288 million.

The Census Bureau said the 5.2% decline from August is not statistically significant. The 90% confidence interval around it is plus or minus 11.8%, a range from a 17% decline to a 6.6% increase, and the bureau calls a change significant only when that interval excludes zero.

Building permits, the approvals that come before a start, were 1.4 million, 0.2% below August's revised rate and 15,000 above Econoday's 1.385 million consensus. Permits for single-family houses fell 4% from August, to 845,000.

By 9:56 a.m. ET, iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB was up 2.1%, and State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB was up 1.5%.

Chart: **Double-digit** declines for ITB and XHB

A day earlier, the National Association of Home Builders said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 29, the lowest reading since June 2012. Freddie Mac's weekly U.S. survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% as of Oct. 15.

"Mortgage rates have climbed well above 7% in recent weeks, and higher gas prices and inflation have further weakened buyer traffic across much of the country," NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said Monday.

Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/housing-starts-miss-forecasts-2026-10-20. Please cite the page URL.