---
title: "October jobs report tests bets on a December rate increase"
url: "https://etf.net/news/jobs-report-tests-december-hike-bets-2026-11-06"
published_at: "2026-11-06T12:30:45.271Z"
updated_at: "2026-11-06T15:01:00.088Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# October jobs report tests bets on a December rate increase

Nasdaq-100 futures are up and Dow futures are down after Thursday’s selloff, and a Reuters survey expects the first annual wage gain under 3% since May 2021.

By ETF.net Research. Published Nov 6, 2026.

Traders were pricing a more than **65%** chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December, the CME FedWatch tool showed, [Reuters reported](https://www.aol.com/articles/nasdaq-futures-rise-steep-ai-094136000.html) Friday morning. The Labor Department releases the October jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and Reuters said investors will look to it for clues on interest rates.

The Fed left its benchmark rate in a range of 3.75% to 4% last week and acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, [Reuters reported](https://www.aol.com/articles/us-job-growth-expected-pick-050441000.html).

A [Reuters survey](https://www.aol.com/articles/us-job-growth-expected-pick-050441000.html) of economists expects 65,000 new jobs in October, after a 29,000 gain in September that a late Labor Day holiday held down. Unemployment is expected to stay at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month, after 0.1% in September, and **2.9%** on the year. That would be the first annual gain below 3% since May 2021, after 3.0% in September.

Reuters said a slowdown of that kind would reinforce the view that the labor market is not a source of inflation. Economists in the survey still expected a December increase, though some thought milder wage pressure could limit how many increases come next year.

“That really should help to dampen medium-term price pressures because the biggest cost input for corporate America is labor,” James Knightley of ING told Reuters.

Nasdaq-100 futures were up 1.7% early Friday, S&P 500 futures were up 0.4%, and Dow futures were down 0.9%, [CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) just after 7 a.m. Eastern. CNBC said the rebound in the technology index came as some investors bought chip stocks after Thursday’s drop, and that the jobs report was capping gains in the main market.

CNBC said chipmakers Micron and Nvidia were up 9% and 5% in trading ahead of the open, after steep declines of 17% and 9% on Thursday.

The Nasdaq-100 lost a sharp 6.4% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) lost 3.4% in an aggressive AI-linked sell-off that wiped nearly $3 trillion off the market value of S&P 500 companies, [Reuters reported](https://www.aol.com/articles/nasdaq-futures-rise-steep-ai-094136000.html).

According to CNBC, the Nasdaq Composite closed more than 10% below its most recent high, putting the index into what Wall Street regards as a correction.

Chart: QQQ fell while DIA held, then both dropped Thursday

The Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, fell 6.5%. BlackRock’s iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX fell 12.1%.

Chart: Technology lost **8%**, the day's outlier

In Friday's Asia trading session, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 6%, to 57,435. South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 8% at the open, and trading was halted for 20 minutes, [the Korea Times reported](https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/20261106/trading-of-kospi-stocks-suspended-amid-tech-sell-off). The Kospi closed down 6%, at 5,060.

[Reuters said](https://www.aol.com/articles/nasdaq-futures-rise-steep-ai-094136000.html) losses stemmed from fears that Democratic control of Congress could mean tougher rules for artificial intelligence. This follows the party’s midterm victory earlier this week, including in some states with large data-center industries.

Democrats plan new AI bills when they take control of Congress in January, Reuters reported Friday, but any legislation would face steep odds while President Donald Trump is in the White House. He has dismissed calls for mandatory AI rules.

“We view Thursday’s selloff as reactionary, not a fundamental reset, driven by a collision of concerns around AI spend, policy and inflation,” Jane Gibbons, equity strategist at Jefferies, told Reuters.

A jump in oil prices on Thursday also pressured stocks, Reuters said, as investors fear energy-fueled inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates from central banks around the world.

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