---
title: "Meta and Lam report Wednesday, and the AI debt question may stay open"
url: "https://etf.net/news/meta-lam-earnings-ai-debt-question-2026-10-18"
published_at: "2026-10-19T01:41:10.877Z"
updated_at: "2026-10-19T01:41:10.877Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# Meta and Lam report Wednesday, and the AI debt question may stay open

Texas Instruments reports after the close on Oct. 21, a week after the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, SMH, fell 10.5%, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's next decision is not until Oct. 28.

By ETF.net Research. Published Oct 18, 2026.

Meta Platforms, which is spending on artificial intelligence, and Lam Research, which designs the equipment that chip factories use, both report after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 21. The results may not answer the debt question Reuters tied to last week's drop in the funds that hold this spending and this equipment.

Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1, QQQ, fell 5.5% in the week ended Friday, Oct. 16, and SMH fell **10.5%**. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5% over the same stretch. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100, not that broader index, and the fund fell further.

Chart: SMH's slide **steepened** against QQQ

Reuters reported Friday, Oct. 16, that the Nasdaq's drop was driven by concerns that debt-laden AI infrastructure companies may not turn a profit in time to repay their debts, particularly with borrowing costs expected to rise.

CoreWeave, the Nvidia-backed cloud company Reuters said has a $50 billion debt load, fell 11.9% that day and 25.2% for the week. Nvidia is the largest holding of both funds, at 20.1% of SMH and 8.2% of QQQ. On Oct. 15, Reuters said the same worry was pressing cash flows even at companies the size of Meta.

## What Wednesday can answer, and what it cannot

Meta said on Oct. 12 that it will release third-quarter results after Wednesday's close and hold a call at 4:30 p.m. ET. It is **23.5%** of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLC, and 3.3% of QQQ. The call is the week's clearest look at whether the spending is showing up in the business, not only in the budget.

Lam Research reports the same evening. It is 4.1% of SMH and 1.4% of QQQ.

Equipment orders say whether chip factories are still being built. They do not say whether the companies paying for those factories can carry the debt. A strong Lam quarter and a strong Meta quarter can both arrive Wednesday and still leave that question open.

Texas Instruments reports the same day and, at 4.9% of SMH, is a bigger piece of that fund than Lam.

Chart: **Nvidia** dwarfs TI and Lam inside SMH

Tesla said on Oct. 2 that it will post third-quarter financial results after the same close and take questions at 5:30 p.m. ET. It is 17.3% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLY, and 2.9% of QQQ. That report is about the car business, a different question from Meta's spending.

SpaceX said Friday, Oct. 16, that it will post third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, Oct. 20, and hold a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. Its shares are listed as Space Exploration Technologies under the ticker SPCX.

The shares are 2.7% of QQQ, the fund's 11th-largest holding. Tuesday's report does not answer Wednesday's debt question.

## The Oct. 28 decision is priced as a hold

The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy committee meets Oct. 27-28, and the decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Oct. 28. There is no new set of the committee's forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation. The next one is scheduled with the Dec. 8-9 meeting.

Under the Fed's communications rule, officials do not speak publicly on monetary policy from the second Saturday before a meeting through the day after it. That window opened Saturday, Oct. 17, and runs through Oct. 29.

On Sept. 16 the Fed raised the target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75% to 4%, on a 12-0 vote, and said inflation remains elevated. Chairman Kevin Warsh put it more plainly that afternoon.

"The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long."

As of Sunday, Oct. 18, CME FedWatch, which takes its odds from futures on the Fed's policy rate, assigned an **83.9%** probability to no change on Oct. 28.

Minutes of the September meeting, released Oct. 7, said most participants assessed that another increase in the target range "would likely be appropriate by year end," and that decisions at future meetings would depend on the incoming information and the risks. The minutes did not pin that increase to October.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Oct. 14 that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, after 0.4% in August, and were up 3.7% from a year earlier. Prices excluding food and energy were up 2.6% on the year, after 2.4% in August.

Gasoline rose 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the month's increase. The next consumer-price report is Nov. 10, after the Oct. 28 decision.

The two-year Treasury yield, the rate on U.S. government debt due in two years, ended Friday, Oct. 16, at 4.74%, above the 4% top of the Fed's target range. Two-year government borrowing already costs more than the ceiling set in September.

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