---
title: "Moderna fell 18% on cancer-vaccine data, and genomics ETFs fell 4%"
url: "https://etf.net/news/moderna-falls-18-cancer-vaccine-data-2026-10-23"
published_at: "2026-10-23T15:01:39.998Z"
updated_at: "2026-10-23T15:01:39.998Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# Moderna fell 18% on cancer-vaccine data, and genomics ETFs fell 4%

The vaccine cut the risk of melanoma returning by 42%, less than an earlier Phase 2b study found, and the two largest biotech funds lost about 1%.

By ETF.net Research. Published Oct 23, 2026.

Moderna fell **17.6%** on Thursday, Oct. 22, after it and Merck published the full results of a personalized melanoma vaccine that met its main goal. Three genomics funds fell about **4%**. The two largest biotech funds lost about **1%**.

Chart: **Moderna** fell 17.6% as health care rose

Two of those genomics funds held Moderna near 12% of assets. A 25-stock biotech fund held the stock at about 7% and Amgen, a large biotech company, at about 16%, and fell 0.8%.

## The larger reduction came after the immunization course

Intismeran autogene is built from the mutations in a patient's own tumor and given with Keytruda, Merck's immunotherapy, after the melanoma has been surgically removed. In the Phase 3 trial, patients received the vaccine at 1 milligram every three weeks for up to nine doses, and Keytruda for about a year. The study randomized 1,137 patients.

Merck and Moderna said the first six months were comparable with Keytruda alone.

"The efficacy of the intismeran immunization plus KEYTRUDA in the first six months was comparable with KEYTRUDA alone," the companies said in their [Oct. 22 release](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-moderna-will-present-results-from-landmark-phase-3-interpath-001-trial-for-intismeran-autogene-plus-keytruda-pembrolizumab-at-esmo-2026-presidential-symposium/).

The figure that covers every patient over the whole follow-up, a median of 24.6 months, is a **42%** reduction in the risk of recurrence or death versus Keytruda alone. A prespecified look at the period after the immunization course found a 58% reduction.

The risk of the cancer spreading, or of death, fell 38% over the full follow-up. At two years, 82.2% of patients on the combination were alive and free of recurrence, against 70.0% on Keytruda alone.

Overall survival results are not yet available. The companies said they are engaging with regulators.

The more favorable numbers came from a different study. On June 1, Moderna and Merck presented a five-year update of the Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial, which had randomized 157 patients. In that study the same combination had cut recurrence or death by 49% and the risk of distant spread or death by 59%. The Phase 3 reduction was more modest, especially on the spread of the cancer.

The figures were not supposed to land on Thursday. The plan was a Saturday presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting in Madrid. [The Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/moderna-cancer-vaccine-data-leaks-early-shares-plummet-f6bc4b4f) that details circulated on social media first, and that the stock plunged on concern the treatment might not be as effective as hoped.

The companies published that afternoon. Moderna traded as much as 25% lower during the session, [CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/moderna-stock-cancer-vaccine-data-leak.html), and closed at $202.63, down 17.6%.

On Aug. 19 the companies had said only that both endpoints were met, with no magnitudes. The stock rose 177% that day, from a prior close of $62.96 to $174.38. Thursday's close is still up 222% from the close before that announcement. Through Thursday, the year's price gain is 587%.

## Why the genomics funds fell 4% and the biotech funds did not

Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF GNOM tracks the Solactive Genomics Index. Solactive says that index follows companies in gene editing, genomic sequencing, genetic medicine, genetic diagnostics and biotechnology. The fund charges 0.50% and had $104 million in assets as of Oct. 9.

Moderna was 7.50% of the fund on Global X's Aug. 31 fact sheet and 11.33% in Global X's Oct. 9 holdings. Holdings for Oct. 21, the session before Thursday, put the weight at 12.32%.

A position that size, falling 17.6%, accounts for about 2.2 percentage points of the fund's 3.9% decline, about half the decline.

Twist Bioscience, a synthetic-DNA company, fell 9.2%, 10x Genomics fell 7.7% and Illumina, the sequencing company, fell 4.8%.

iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF IDNA fell 3.9%. It tracks the NYSE FactSet Global Genomics and Immuno Biopharma Index, and Moderna was 11.2% of the fund at the end of September, the largest holding. It charges 0.47% and had $311 million in assets as of Oct. 19.

ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG does not own Moderna. ARK Invest manages it actively and charges 0.75%. The Oct. 20 holdings file put assets at about $2.1 billion. The three largest positions that day were 10x Genomics at 8.71%, Twist Bioscience at 8.21% and Tempus AI at 8.06%.

ARK [wrote on Sept. 16](https://www.ark-funds.com/articles/etf/arkg-owns-the-innovation-layer) that the fund owns the companies that sequence a tumor, choose the targets and synthesize the genetic material behind a readout like this one. Those three stocks fell 7.7%, 9.2% and 5.8%. On the Oct. 20 weights, that was about half of the fund's 4.0% decline.

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF XBI tracks the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index, which State Street describes as modified equal weighted. It charges 0.35% and had $10.7 billion in assets as of Oct. 21. Moderna was the largest holding that day at 2.69%, and the top ten were 18% of the fund. The stock's drop was worth about half a percentage point. The fund fell 0.7%.

iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB tracks the NYSE Biotechnology Index. It charges 0.44% and had $11.2 billion at the end of September, when it held 243 stocks and the top ten were 49% of assets. Moderna was 4.9%. Gilead Sciences, Amgen and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, the three largest holdings, each rose about 2%. The fund fell 1.0%.

VanEck Biotech ETF BBH tracks the MVIS US Listed Biotech 25 Index. It charges 0.35% and had $486 million in assets as of Oct. 14. That day's file showed Amgen at 16.2% of the fund and Moderna at 7.2%. On that weight, Thursday's drop in Moderna was about 1.3 percentage points of loss. Amgen rose 2.0% and Gilead rose 2.4%, and the fund fell 0.8%.

Chart: **Moderna** led the declines; large-cap biotech rose

First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index Fund FBT equal-weights 30 biotechnology companies and rebalances quarterly. A [January 2024 prospectus supplement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1329377/000144554624000413/etf1_497e.htm) says the index picks those 30 by a rank that is half sales, a quarter the ratio of sales to research spending, and a quarter the change in research spending. The fund charges 0.55% and had $2.9 billion in assets as of Oct. 12. Moderna was not among the ten largest positions First Trust listed on Oct. 22. The fund rose 0.1%.

Health care rose. State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF XLV gained 1.3%. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY fell 1.2%. The genomics funds fell harder than the broad market. IBB, XBI and BBH each fell less than SPY.

Table: Fund, Oct. 22, Since Dec. 31, 2025

Figures are price changes through Thursday's close.

## The fund that led 2026 is still down over five years

From the last close of 2025, the genomics funds in the table are up 45% to 65%. SPY is up 12% and XLV is up 17%.

Twist Bioscience was up 327% over that stretch, and 10x Genomics was up 328%. Illumina was up 105%, Natera, a genetic-testing company, was up 75%, and Moderna was up 587%. CRISPR Therapeutics, a gene-editing company held by GNOM and ARKG, was down 4.7%.

Over the three years through Thursday, the price of XBI is up 116% and the price of ARKG is up 86%. Over five years, ARKG is still down 37%, while XBI is up 19% and IBB is up 33%. The fund ahead this year is the one still down over five years.

Chart: ARKG leads 2026 and is still **down** over five years

## The same result, different positions

The 42% reduction was the same result for every fund that held Moderna. GNOM and IDNA carried the stock as a leading position and fell 3.9%. ARKG does not own it and fell 4.0%. BBH, with Amgen at 16% and Moderna at 7% as of Oct. 14, fell 0.8%. XBI, with Moderna at 2.7%, fell 0.7%.

Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/moderna-falls-18-cancer-vaccine-data-2026-10-23. Please cite the page URL.