--- title: "GraniteShares Prediction Markets ETF would own stocks, not the contracts" url: "https://etf.net/news/prediction-etf-stocks-not-contracts-2026-10-16" published_at: "2026-10-16T12:21:08.895Z" updated_at: "2026-10-16T12:21:08.895Z" byline: "ETF.net Research" --- # GraniteShares Prediction Markets ETF would own stocks, not the contracts Many of the companies it could buy earn only a small share of their profit from prediction markets, and the two biggest platforms are still private. By ETF.net Research. Published Oct 16, 2026. GraniteShares ETF Trust filed on Wednesday, October 14, to register the GraniteShares Prediction Markets ETF, a fund that would own shares of prediction-market companies and would not buy the contracts those markets trade. The trust filed a second prospectus the same day, the GraniteShares Cash-Burn Growth ETF, for growing companies that are still losing money. Neither prospectus is a launch. Both are marked "Subject to completion," dated October 14, 2026, and both say the shares cannot be sold until the registration statement is effective. Each elects to become effective 75 days after filing under Rule 485(a)(2), a date that falls on December 28, 2026. Under that rule the amendment becomes effective on its own unless the issuer later files to delay it. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not have to approve the filing for that date to arrive. Tickers and management fees are blank. Nothing in either document changes a GraniteShares fund that already trades. ## The other filing is a cash-burn screen The GraniteShares Cash-Burn Growth ETF would be actively managed, and its objective is capital appreciation. Under normal circumstances it would invest at least 80% of its net assets in stocks of companies the adviser calls cash-burn growth companies. GraniteShares Advisors would apply the tests at each rebalance, using the latest public financial statements. A company must have reported negative net income, or negative free cash flow, over its latest four fiscal quarters. Free cash flow, in the prospectus, is cash from operations minus capital spending. Revenue over those four quarters must have risen by at least 20% from the four quarters before. A separate test, a minimum dollar amount of revenue, is still blank. The fund generally will not buy a company whose auditor has questioned whether it can stay in business, or one without enough liquidity to fund the next 12 months. The adviser expects significant exposure to information technology and health care. Weights would generally follow a modified market capitalization, with a 10% cap on any one company at each rebalance, and the portfolio would be rebalanced at least quarterly. The fund would not track an index, and the adviser can add or remove a company on its own assessment. A holding can still file for bankruptcy before the next quarterly rebalance. The prospectus says equity holders in a bankruptcy often receive little or nothing. ## What the prediction-markets fund would own The GraniteShares Prediction Markets ETF seeks capital appreciation. It would put at least 80% of its net assets into equities of companies the adviser treats as prediction-market companies. "The Fund does not invest in event contracts, prediction market contracts, or other instruments whose value is determined by the outcome of an event, and does not participate directly in any prediction market." The prospectus says performance would reflect the shares of prediction-market companies, not the outcome of any event and not the price of any event contract. Derivatives are not part of the principal strategy. The adviser defines the eligible work broadly: operating an event-contract platform, customer trading, clearing, settlement or custody, making markets, and the data and technology around that work. The prospectus also names exchange operators, online brokerages, sports-wagering and online-gaming operators, and digital-asset trading platforms. A private operator is excluded unless its securities become publicly traded. "Many Prediction Market Companies derive only a small portion of their revenues or profits from Prediction Market Activities." The adviser would rebalance at least quarterly, using a modified market-capitalization weight adjusted for that prediction-market exposure, with a 25% cap on any single issuer at the rebalance. Tema launched the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF, DICE, on September 9, and said the fund holds the private companies Kalshi and Polymarket through a special purpose vehicle. Investing.com reported on October 9 that the two companies were still private, that they were still that fund's top two holdings, and that Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour had ruled out a public debut in 2026. A GraniteShares fund limited to publicly traded securities could not buy either company while that remains true. ## The event-contract funds are still delayed GraniteShares has already filed the other kind of product. On February 17 it registered six funds whose objectives are capital appreciation if a party wins the 2028 presidential election or control of the Senate or the House in 2026, through event contracts that settle at $1 or $0. Reuters reported on May 4 that the launch of the first prediction-market ETFs had been delayed while the SEC sought details from issuers. On May 10, CNBC named Roundhill Investments, Bitwise and GraniteShares among the issuers whose funds the SEC had held up. Those six funds are in Post-Effective Amendment No. 182, and that amendment is not effective. On Thursday the trust filed to delay it until October 23. The filing says the delay is its only purpose. Under Rule 485(b), a delay of this kind can move the date no more than 30 days past the date already on file, so a February registration reaches October 23 in short steps. Wednesday's prediction-markets prospectus is a different proposal, company shares rather than contracts, and it is still subject to completion. Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/prediction-etf-stocks-not-contracts-2026-10-16. Please cite the page URL.