---
title: "Producer prices test a quarter or half-point rate increase, while Nvidia climbs and Microsoft falls"
url: "https://etf.net/news/producer-prices-test-rate-hike-size-2026-11-13"
published_at: "2026-11-13T12:25:39.040Z"
updated_at: "2026-11-13T14:27:41.703Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# Producer prices test a quarter or half-point rate increase, while Nvidia climbs and Microsoft falls

October producer prices are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a December Federal Reserve increase priced as certain and the odds split between a quarter and a half-point hike.

By ETF.net Research. Published Nov 13, 2026.

Stock futures were barely higher shortly before 7 a.m. ET, ahead of the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be read for whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates by a quarter point or a half point in December.

S&P 500 futures were up **0.2%** from Thursday’s settlement. Nasdaq-100 futures were up less than 0.1%, and Dow futures were up 0.1%.

[CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/13/treasury-yields-fed-rates.html) early Friday that CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed 100% odds of an increase at the Fed meeting that ends Dec. 9, with almost **87%** odds of a 25-basis-point rise and around **13%** odds of a 50-basis-point rise. October producer prices are due at **8:30 a.m. ET**.

## PPI above 0.4% may call for a higher hike

CME Group’s economic calendar lists a 0.4% consensus for the monthly increase, with estimates ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%, and a 6.6% rise from a year earlier. Any readings above these levels would favour the half-point rate hike pricing.

Excluding food and energy, the consensus prediction for PPI is a 0.3% monthly rise, following a gain of 0.7% in September when producer prices rose 1.3% on the month. This was the largest increase since a 1.7% rise in March 2022, and 6.3% over the year, the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) said on Oct. 15.

October consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11102026.htm) reported Tuesday, above a 0.3% forecast CME Group noted.

CNBC reported Friday morning that the 10-year Treasury yield was at 5.13%, up 2 basis points, after jumping more than 13 basis points on Thursday, and that the 2-year yield was at 4.85%, down 1 basis point, after rising more than 15 basis points on Thursday.

## Nvidia up, Microsoft still down

Nvidia closed Thursday down 4.3% at $166.19, after falling as much as 14% at the open. Shortly before 7 a.m. ET shares were at $170.20, up 2.4% from that close.

[Jensen Huang resigned](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-ceo-transition) Thursday as president, chief executive and a board member, effective immediately. He stepped down after reports of extramarital affairs, including one involving a suspected Chinese spy, [NBC News reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-resigns-reports-extramarital-relationships-rcna608402). The board named chief financial officer Colette Kress interim chief executive, and she will keep her finance role while the board searches for a permanent successor.

The board said it expects operations, customer commitments and the product roadmap to continue without interruption. Nvidia is scheduled to report results Tuesday at about 4:20 p.m. ET.

Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% at $574.65 in premarket trading, after gaining 5.9% on Thursday. Broadcom was down 1.8% at $357.74, after gaining 5.5%.

Microsoft 365 services, including Outlook and Teams, were still disrupted Friday, marking a second day of the outage. Microsoft said it was seeing early signs of stabilization, though capacity had not returned to normal, [CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/12/business/live-news/microsoft-global-outage-intl-hnk). Charles Lamanna, a Microsoft executive vice president, said there was no indication the outage resulted from malicious or cyber activity, CNN reported.

Shares were down 1.5% to $515.26 in premarket trading.

Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/producer-prices-test-rate-hike-size-2026-11-13. Please cite the page URL.