Stocks rose on the weak jobs report. Long Treasurys kept falling.
Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, far short of an 84,000 forecast, and on Friday, October 2 the S&P 500 fund gained 0.7% while the long-Treasury fund fell 0.3%.
Key takeaways
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers added 29,000 jobs in September, against the 84,000 jobs economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected, and stocks rose. TLT, the fund that holds government bonds due in more than 20 years, traded higher after the report and finished down 0.3%. The 10-year yield finished at 5.28%, up from 5.24% on Thursday's Treasury curve.
July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000. August was cut to 133,000 from 162,000. Together, that is 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, where those economists had expected it to stay. The rise was not a wave of layoffs. A household survey, separate from the count of employer payrolls, showed 45,000 fewer people who had lost a job or finished a temporary one.
People returning to the job market rose by 152,000, and first-time seekers rose by 116,000. The share of adults working or looking for work edged up to 61.8% from 61.6%. Unemployment has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.
One reading is that a jobless rate driven by new job seekers is a weak reason for long-term yields to fall.
Soft data, and higher yields
TLT traded as high as $78.32, 0.8% above Thursday's close, before finishing at $77.48. IEF, which holds Treasurys due in seven to 10 years, also fell 0.3%. From its close on Friday, September 25, TLT is down 2.3%.
TLT fell in every session after Sept. 25
- TLT · 77.48
- SPY · 769.67
On that same Treasury curve, the two-year yield rose to 4.83% from 4.78%, and the 30-year rose to 5.63% from 5.61%.
Interest-rate futures priced less than a one-in-five chance of an increase at the Fed's meeting on October 27 and 28, down from more than one-in-four before the report. A December increase was still priced at nearly 90%. The dollar index was down 0.4% from the prior settle in late afternoon.
The target range is 3.75% to 4%, after a quarter-point rise on September 16.
On Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency," and that if the economy follows his forecast, "one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year."
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said the personal consumption expenditures price index, the gauge the Fed watches most closely, was up 3.4% in August from a year earlier, and 3.0% excluding food and energy. Both readings came in below forecast. TLT fell that day too.
On Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management said the prices manufacturers pay jumped to 77.9 from 71.1 in August.
The stock gain had other drivers
SPY, the fund that holds the S&P 500, rose 0.7% to $769.67. QQQ, which holds the Nasdaq-100, rose 1.0% to $749.50 and traded as high as $754.53, its highest price in a year. The Nasdaq Composite traded as high as 27,354, also its highest in a year, and closed up 1.2% at 27,191.
SpaceX, Tesla and AMD led the Nasdaq-100 fund's gain.
Seagate and Western Digital each fell 10%
Seagate and Western Digital dropped after Nikkei reported that Toshiba plans to expand hard-drive production.
The Fed meets on October 27 and 28. Lower odds of an increase at that meeting did not bring long-term yields down. That is the question left for those two days.
ETFs in this story
Frequently asked questions
How weak was the September jobs report?
Employers added 29,000 jobs, against the 84,000 economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected.
Why didn't long-term yields fall on the soft report?
One reading is that a jobless rate driven by new job seekers is a weak reason for long-term yields to fall.
Did the report change the odds of a Fed rate increase?
Futures priced less than a one-in-five chance of an increase on October 27 and 28, down from more than one-in-four, while a December increase was still nearly 90%.
What led the Nasdaq-100 fund's gain?
SpaceX, Tesla and AMD led the Nasdaq-100 fund's gain.


