--- title: "The Fed is expected to hike with oil still above $100" url: "https://etf.net/news/the-fed-is-expected-to-hike-with-oil-still-above-100-2026-09-16" published_at: "2026-09-16T13:00:55.936Z" updated_at: "2026-09-16T13:00:55.936Z" byline: "ETF.net Research" --- # The Fed is expected to hike with oil still above $100 Wednesday, September 16, 2026: FOMC decision at 2 p.m. ET, with fed-funds futures implying a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike; August retail sales at 8:30 a.m. By ETF.net Research. Published Sep 16, 2026. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its target range at **2 p.m. Eastern**, a quarter-point step from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00% and the first increase since 2023. Fed-funds futures implied a **92.5%** chance of that move early Wednesday, up from 33% a month ago; 86 of 101 economists in a Reuters survey taken after Friday's inflation report reached the same conclusion. A move that thoroughly priced is not the surprise. The surprise, if there is one, sits in Chair Kevin Warsh's projections and in the press conference at 2:30 p.m. As of 8:25 a.m. Eastern, the bid is in the broad equity funds. The oil and energy funds that led Tuesday are giving some of it back. Table: Exposure, Fund, Tuesday, Before the open ## Energy was Tuesday's exception Breadth was poor. Of 5,444 U.S.-listed ETFs that priced, 1,000 closed higher and 4,329 closed lower. Chart: Energy led; **nine** of eleven sectors fell Levered long energy funds rose a median 3.8%, with all six higher. Crude is still above $100 and the 10-year Treasury closed at 5% on the official curve, [Tuesday's split](https://etf.net/news/the-fed-opens-with-the-10-year-above-5-and-crude-still-over-100-2026-09-15) still in force: energy higher, almost everything else lower. Small-cap IWM is down 3.2% over five sessions. The high-yield bond fund HYG closed lower for a seventh straight session; the investment-grade corporate bond fund LQD for a fifth. Long Treasurys TLT slipped another 0.3% and are down 1.8% over five sessions. Credit and duration have been marking the hike down in price for a week. Chart: Credit and long Treasurys are **lower** into the decision ## A 2% overnight oil decline leaves the level intact West Texas Intermediate was at **$103.87** a barrel as of 8:15 a.m. Eastern, down 1.9%. Brent was at $107.35, down 1.3%. Gold futures were at $4,384.90, up 1.2%. The dollar index was at 99.44, down 0.2%. The 10-year yield was at 4.98% as of 8:25 a.m., just under Tuesday's 5% official close. Oil's overnight percentage is not the inflation problem. The level is. Crude is still above $100 after Tuesday's jump, with supply still tied to the war with Iran, reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and last week's damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called that closure a brief interruption that would last days. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said images of a damaged pumping station point to months of repairs, and Kpler, a trade-data firm, expects the line to run at about half of normal capacity for up to six weeks. U.S. crude inventories reportedly rose last week, a co-move with the overnight dip. The price itself is still the one that has been feeding inflation: consumer prices rose **3.4%** over the 12 months ending August, the government reported Friday, with gasoline up 3.9% in the month and accounting for more than a third of the August increase. Christopher Phelan, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said Tuesday that a rate hike would be a mistake. USO and XLE are lower before the open by 2.0% and 1.1%, a partial giveback of Tuesday's jump. ## August retail sales and the 2 p.m. decision August retail sales are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with July still the last print: **$763.6 billion**, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from a year earlier, seasonally adjusted but not for prices. Business inventories for July follow at 10 a.m. Those numbers are the last official look at demand before the statement. A hold would reprice funds this afternoon. So would a hike paired with the Summary of Economic Projections, the quarterly rate path each official submits, that keeps further increases on the table while oil is still above $100. So would a Warsh press conference that describes today as a one-step adjustment. What is not in the price, after a week of credit and duration marking the quarter-point down, is a hold, or a hike that Warsh presents as the first of several. The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting begins Thursday, a second policy event before the week is out. Source: etf.net, https://etf.net/news/the-fed-is-expected-to-hike-with-oil-still-above-100-2026-09-16. Please cite the page URL.