U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion, more than expected and a drag on growth
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an August trade gap of $105.6 billion on Tuesday, October 6, up $12.7 billion from July, the widest since March 2025 and above the $102.1 billion Bloomberg survey median.
Key takeaways
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, more than expected and the widest since March 2025, as imports rose to an all-time high.
The gap grew $12.7 billion, or 13.7%, from a revised $92.8 billion in July. It was $3.5 billion wider than the $102.1 billion median in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Imports rose $17.2 billion, or 4.3%, to $420.8 billion. Exports rose $4.5 billion, or 1.4%, to $315.2 billion.
The goods deficit rose $12.8 billion to $136.6 billion. The services surplus rose by less than $0.1 billion, to $31.0 billion.
Imports of industrial supplies rose $9.1 billion, including $3.3 billion more crude oil and $3.1 billion more gold. Imports of capital goods rose $6.2 billion, including $2.4 billion more semiconductors.
Gold exports rose $2.3 billion, so gold added $0.8 billion to the deficit on net.
Adjusting for prices, the goods deficit rose 8.2%, compared with 11.1% before that adjustment.
What it means for growth
On September 30, the U.S. Census Bureau's advance report put the August goods deficit at $132.6 billion, wider than the $115 billion economists had forecast.
The same day, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a running estimate built only from data already released, put the contribution of trade to third-quarter growth at minus 2.60 percentage points, from minus 1.37 percentage points. Its growth estimate was 3.7% as of October 1.
Economists estimate trade could cut as much as 2.5 percentage points from third-quarter growth, the subtraction that comes when imports rise faster than exports.
Frequently asked questions
How big was the U.S. trade deficit in August?
It was $105.6 billion, up $12.7 billion from a revised $92.8 billion in July and the widest since March 2025.
Was the deficit bigger than forecast?
Yes, it was $3.5 billion wider than the $102.1 billion median in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
What drove the jump in imports?
Imports of industrial supplies rose $9.1 billion, including more crude oil and gold, and capital goods imports rose $6.2 billion, including $2.4 billion more semiconductors.
How could this affect economic growth?
Economists estimate trade could cut as much as 2.5 percentage points from third-quarter growth, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model put trade's contribution at minus 2.60 points.
