---
title: "Vail pass sales fall about 12%, and profit guidance only partly repairs last winter's damage"
url: "https://etf.net/news/vail-pass-sales-fall-about-12-and-profit-guidance-only-partly-repairs-last-winter-s-damage-2026-09-28"
published_at: "2026-09-28T21:16:36.910Z"
updated_at: "2026-09-28T21:16:36.910Z"
byline: "ETF.net Research"
---

# Vail pass sales fall about 12%, and profit guidance only partly repairs last winter's damage

Vail Resorts said on Monday, September 28, 2026, that North American pass sales through September 18 were about 12% lower, and guided fiscal 2027 resort profit to $805 million to $865 million, a range that clears the $844.1 million earned before last winter only at the top.

By ETF.net Research. Published Sep 28, 2026.

Vail Resorts said Monday that it has sold about **12%** fewer passes for the coming North American ski season. Its forecast for resort profit gets above last winter's result, and back to the year before that only at the top of the range.

Passes are how Vail sells skiing before the season starts. A guest who pays now is a visit the company already has, whatever the snow turns out to be.

Through September 18, the cash collected on those passes, including taxes, was down about 6%. Vail said the weakness is in passes for destination guests, people who travel to the mountains, and especially in passes good for only a few days. Unlimited passes were relatively stronger, and local markets in Colorado and Utah improved modestly after the spring deadline.

The smaller drop in cash reflects both price and mix. A few-day pass is a smaller purchase than an unlimited one, so losing those passes while keeping unlimited buyers lifts the cash per pass. In March, Chief Executive Officer Rob Katz said the main unlimited passes were up 3% to 4% before taxes, and that the average increase was about the same before any shift in which passes guests buy.

Vail said outside data showed it "outperforming the broader industry, especially amongst comparable unlimited products." Its own pass count is still down 12%.

Vail is still calling the drop a delay, and said it may be guests waiting rather than demand that is gone. The reported decline has widened since May 26, from about 10% to about 12% in passes sold and from about 5% to about 6% in cash. Once passes that renew on their own are set aside, the company said, sales through the Labor Day deadline were generally in line with the spring.

In June, Katz said U.S. ski visitation typically fully recovers after a poor season if the next one is normal. He pointed to fall pass sales, or lift tickets bought during the season, as the way those visits could come back.

A year ago, the late selling window was better than mid-September, when passes were down about 3% and the cash was up about 1%. From then through December 5, units were down about 1% and dollars were up about 6% from the year before.

The tests this time are the December pass update and lift-ticket sales once the mountains open. Katz is scheduled to take questions at 5 p.m. Eastern time.

## Only the top of the range gets all the way back

Resort profit in the year ended July 31 fell 11.7%, to $745.7 million from $844.1 million. That is Resort Reported EBITDA, Vail's measure of resort profit before interest, taxes and some charges that are not cash.

For the year ending July 31, 2027, the year that includes this ski season, the first forecast is **$805 million to $865 million**, including about $14 million of one-time costs. Vail called that a meaningful recovery from last year, and the range is above the $745.7 million. The low end, $805 million, and the middle, $835 million in the company's table, both sit below the $844.1 million from the year before, and only $865 million clears that mark.

"This past winter was one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S.," Katz said. Snowfall and snowpack in the Rockies were at or near historic lows, the company said.

Net income is forecast at $158 million to $233 million, compared with $147.5 million last year. The whole of that range sits below the $280 million earned the year before.

The outlook assumes normal weather and an economy that stays as it is. Vail said the increase depends on more lift-ticket visits, higher prices, more spending per guest and about $25 million of further cost savings, offset in part by weaker pass demand, costs moving back up, inflation and new spending.

Against the expectations it set in September 2025, the outlook assumes modestly fewer visits, with lift revenue held flat by pricing and product changes. Vail tied the missing pass sales to last winter's snow and to less committed guests.

The board kept the quarterly dividend at $2.22 a share, payable October 27 to shareholders of record on October 8, and the company kept a plan to spend about $215 million to $220 million on core projects this calendar year.

Oasis Management nominated four directors on September 10 and disclosed the nominations in a filing on September 16.

Shares closed the regular session up 1.4% at $138.07, before the release, and were indicated about 2.2% lower after hours. The close is about 15% below the 52-week high of $163.34, and above a low of $118.51.

The forecast repairs part of what last winter took. Only the top of the range gets all the way back, and that still depends on guests who have not bought a pass.

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