August PPI opens the day a month behind $100 oil
Thursday, September 10, 2026: August producer prices at 8:30 a.m. ET, an ECB rate decision at 8:15, Brent crude at $102.21.
The August producer-price report due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern is last month's survey. It will not include this week's jump in crude, and it is still the morning's biggest scheduled number for U.S. markets.
Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes that destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. Ship traffic through the passage has thinned. Brent crude was at $102.21 a barrel by 7:05 a.m. Eastern, up 1.0%. West Texas Intermediate was at $97.48, up 1.5%.
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,636.36, down 0.48%. The Dow fell 0.77% to 52,380.66. Energy stocks, via XLE, gained 0.8%.
August prices, September oil
The Labor Department will publish the August producer-price index, a measure of what U.S. companies receive for goods and services, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists expect the headline index to have risen 0.4% on the month after a flat July. In July the index was unchanged, and up 4.7% from a year earlier. Gasoline prices fell 5.7% that month; final-demand energy dropped 3.1%. Strip out food, energy and trade services and prices still rose 0.4%; economists expect 0.3% on that measure for August.
That mix is the trap in this morning's print. A headline near the 0.4% forecast would mostly tell you that July's energy dip did not repeat in August. A soft one would tell you even less about the oil sitting on the screen now. Friday's consumer-price index is August's survey too. Both of this week's inflation prints predate the strikes, so the earliest official read on $100 Brent is weeks away.
USO has climbed since August's last session
The European Central Bank is expected to raise its deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.50% from 2.25%, with the decision due at 8:15 a.m. Eastern and President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 8:45. European stocks were mixed into the decision: Germany's DAX was up 0.2%, while London's FTSE 100 was down 0.4%.
Yields did not wait for the buyback
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 4.83%, the 2-year at 4.43%, the 30-year at 5.28%. Long-term Treasurys, via TLT, fell 0.6% on Wednesday and were down another 0.36% in premarket trading.
The Treasury is scheduled today to buy back as much as $6 billion of notes with 10 to 20 years left, from 1:40 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. Eastern, triple the size of the prior long-coupon operation. The announcement on Wednesday did not produce lower yields. A 30-year bond auction is also on the calendar. Whatever today's operation does for liquidity, it is not a cap on the long end.
The rest of the clock
Macy's, the department-store operator, reports second-quarter results at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. The shares fell 4.2% on Wednesday.
The rate decision and the inflation print both land before the cash open:
The Federal Reserve meets September 15-16. It will have this morning's producer-price print and Friday's consumer-price index in the folder. It will also have an oil price neither August survey can see. If bonds treat a cool headline as relief, they will be trading last month's gasoline drop.
Frequently asked
Why doesn't this morning's PPI capture the oil spike?
It surveys August prices, while crude jumped this week after the strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.
When will official inflation data reflect $100 Brent?
Weeks away: both this week's producer and consumer price reports cover August, before the strikes.
What are economists expecting from the report?
A 0.4% rise in the headline index after a flat July, and 0.3% excluding food, energy and trade services.
Will the Treasury's buyback hold down long-term yields?
The announcement did not lower yields, and the article says the operation is not a cap on the long end.