Brent at $108 meets the RBI's $90 oil path, three weeks before it decides
India's statistics office on Monday, September 14 put August consumer-price inflation at 4.82%, with food at 5.95%, as Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel against the RBI's $90 assumption.
Three weeks before its October 5-7 meeting, the Reserve Bank of India is still working from an August forecast that treated oil around $90 a barrel as reasonable. Brent crude was at $108.32 as of 7:45 a.m. Eastern Monday, up 3.5% on the day, after drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut the East-West pipeline, a closure that Reuters said threatens 4% of global oil supply.
Brent has held above $90 through every September session
- Brent · $108
- RBI $90 · $90
August consumer prices in India rose 4.82% from a year earlier, the third month above the bank's 4% target and still inside the 2% to 6% tolerance band. Food inflation was 5.95%, from 5.52% in July. Rural inflation was 5.23%; urban inflation was 4.31%. The reading is the last full CPI print the Monetary Policy Committee will have before it meets.
In August the committee left the repo rate at 5.25% and projected inflation of 5.0% for 2026-27, peaking at 5.9% in the October-December quarter. It said it was reasonable to expect oil around $90 a barrel. The same resolution said the pass-through of higher global energy prices was already visible in commercial LPG and industrial inputs, and that "the full impact will be visible only in the coming months."
SBI Research on September 11 called for a 25-basis-point increase in October, a call it said did not depend on the August print, which it expected around 4.8% to 4.9%. The number came in on that mark. HDFC Securities expects the first increase in December 2026 or February 2027, with cumulative rises of 50 to 75 basis points.
The print landed on Ganesh Chaturthi. Onshore stocks, bonds and the rupee will not reprice until Tuesday, so the only venue that can trade it today is a U.S. listing opening at 9:30 a.m. Eastern: INDA, a fund of large- and mid-cap Indian stocks, which last closed Friday at $48.57, down 10.1% year to date.
Frequently asked
What did the August inflation reading show?
Consumer prices rose 4.82% from a year earlier, with food inflation at 5.95%, rural at 5.23% and urban at 4.31%.
Why does the oil price matter so much here?
The RBI's August projections assumed Brent around $90 a barrel, and crude is now above $108 after drone attacks shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which Reuters said threatens 4% of global oil supply.
Where does the RBI's policy rate stand?
The Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate at 5.25% in August and projected inflation of 5.0% for 2026-27, peaking at 5.9% in the October-December quarter.
Is this the last data the RBI sees before deciding?
Yes, it is the final full CPI print before the committee's October meeting.