Houthis take Perim Island, the remaining Middle East oil chokepoint

Iran-aligned Houthi forces took Perim Island, the rock that splits the Bab al-Mandeb into two shipping lanes, on Friday after internationally recognized Yemeni government troops withdrew, according to Yemeni government sources who spoke to Reuters, CNN, and the Wall Street Journal. The same sources said the group had reached Dhubab, the coastal town that sits on the strait across from the island, a day after capturing the port of Mocha. The strait is the workaround after Hormuz tightened: in its September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration put flows through the Strait of Hormuz at 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, from 20.9 million in the first quarter of 2025. Flows through the Bab al-Mandeb rose the other way, to 8.1 million barrels a day, from 3.9 million.

Brent crude was at $104.89 a barrel as of 10:45 a.m. Eastern, down 2.5% from Thursday’s settle, and $5.30 off an overnight high of $110.19. West Texas Intermediate was at $99.57, down 2.8%. NBC News quoted a Houthi statement that “maritime navigation is safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels,” and a vow to strike Saudi targets until, in the group’s words, “the aggression stops and the blockade against our dear people is lifted.” No tanker broker or war-risk underwriter had spoken on that claim as of late morning.

Perim, Dhubab, and who is saying so

Perim, also called Mayyun, sits in the middle of the Bab al-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that is the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Control of the island plus Dhubab is what Yemeni government sources told Reuters on Thursday would be key to holding the waterway. The Wall Street Journal, citing Saudi and Yemeni officials, described the result as effective control of the chokepoint. An anonymous local official told AFP that boats carrying Houthi fighters reached the island after government forces pulled out.

That is a stronger claim than a Houthi government communique. Al Jazeera’s Nabil al-Yousfi reported there had been no official announcement from the Houthi authorities confirming control of the Bab al-Mandeb.

Andreas Krieg of King’s College London told NBC News that holding Mocha, Dhubab, and Perim would not give the Houthis sovereign control of the entire strait, because the western shore is not Yemen’s. It would, he said, give them a much stronger ability to contest, threaten, and potentially deny commercial use. As of late morning Friday, neither a named Saudi nor UAE government reaction had been quoted beyond the Journal’s attribution, and U.S. Central Command had issued no public statement tied to the island.

The other gate is already damaged

The International Energy Agency’s monthly oil report, published Friday, had already named “renewed attacks in both the Gulf and the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb choke point” as a reason Gulf flows have not normalized. It put August Gulf-country oil exports at about 13 million barrels a day, nearly half their pre-war level. Crude losses had narrowed to just below 45%, the agency said, because of volumes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military escorts. Refined-product and LPG exports were still nearly 60%, or 3.7 million barrels a day, below February. Gulf diesel and gasoil net exports averaged 390,000 barrels a day in August, just over a quarter of pre-war levels.

In the first half of 2025, the EIA had estimated only 4.2 million barrels a day through the Bab al-Mandeb, about half the 2023 volume, with LNG through the strait near zero. Some of the Hormuz workaround is already under strain. The EIA’s September 9 outlook said attacks on Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandeb cut loadings from Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal that bypasses Hormuz, by about half in August from July. Saudi shipments through the Suez Canal, a longer path to Asia, increased in response. Maersk said Wednesday, in its Europe market update, that it and Hapag-Lloyd would send the AE19 and AE15 container services via Suez rather than around the Cape of Good Hope, a limited return to the canal, not a reopening of the lane. Reuters reported Friday the biggest wave of attacks on shipping since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February.

Oil funds fall with crude; shipping does not

The funds that hold crude futures are tracking this morning’s pullback. The United States Oil Fund BUSO, which holds near-month WTI futures, was at $153.86, down 2.9%. The United States Brent Oil Fund CBNO, a Brent futures fund that etf.net grades C against other energy-futures products, was at $61.40, down 2.7%. Both are still up about 9% to 10% over five sessions. Last Friday, Brent settled at $96.28; it is up 8.9% from that close even after today’s drop.

The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF AXLE, which holds S&P 500 energy stocks and carries an A grade among broad energy funds, was at $64.89, down 0.06%. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are about 35% of that book. Equity energy is not following the futures this morning, as it did not fully follow Thursday’s surge the other way.

The SonicShares Global Shipping ETF DBOAT, a $110 million global shipowner fund that etf.net grades D in its transportation category, was at $51.67, up 1.2%, and traded as high as $52.16, matching its 52-week high. Frontline, a tanker owner and the fund’s second-largest holding, was at $48.81, up 0.8%. The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF AITA, graded A among defense and aerospace funds, was at $218.85, up 0.2%.

Moves as of 10:45 a.m. Eastern. AXLE is rounded from -0.06%.

Crude futures reversed Thursday while DBOAT matched a 52-week high, in a week when the cost of the largest tankers set a record. That split is freight versus supply.

The new fact is who sits on the rock in the middle of the remaining Middle East sea lane, not the 10:45 a.m. crude print. Chartering a very large crude carrier from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia already cost $29.5 million a voyage on Thursday, a record lump-sum fee, before extra war-risk. Whether cargoes keep transiting, pay up, or go the long way around Africa is the next print, and it will come from carriers, insurers, and whoever, if anyone, tries to take the island back.