Long Treasurys hit a 52-week low as Meta holds the S&P 500 in place

Long Treasurys, intermediate Treasurys, investment-grade credit, and utilities all finished at or within cents of 52-week lows. The S&P 500 slipped 2.2 points, or 0.03%, to 7,703.83 at the 4 p.m. ET close. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.01%. Meta Platforms rose 4.5% after overnight announcements around its Muse AI assistant and a new palm-sized device, enough to keep the capitalization-weighted indexes from doing much of anything. 4,560 of 5,567 U.S.-listed ETFs closed lower.

Over the past month the equal-weight S&P 500 fund BRSP is down 5.2%, while the S&P 500 fund ASPY is up 0.2%. Cap-weighted indexes can still look calm at a 5.18% 10-year. The funds that hold duration, utilities, and the average stock are already marking a different price.

The 10-year at 5.18%

The Treasury's Thursday curve put the 10-year at 5.18% and the 30-year at 5.47%. The two-year was 4.87%. This morning's Opening Bell already had the long end higher with oil; the close did not reverse it. The long-term Treasury fund BTLT fell 1.3% to $79.42, matching its 52-week low, on some of its heaviest volume in 20 sessions. The 7-10 year fund BIEF fell 0.6% and also closed at a 52-week low.

The investment-grade corporate bond fund ALQD dropped 0.7%, a few cents from its own 52-week low. The high-yield fund BHYG fell 0.3% for a third session, on its heaviest volume of the past 20. The utilities sector fund AXLU fell 1.0%, a fifth straight decline that left it at a 52-week low as well.

The Treasury sold $44 billion of seven-year notes that cleared at 5.085% with a bid-to-cover of 2.42, a weak reading on a day when dealers and direct bidders had to take more of the issue than they usually do.

Labor data gave duration buyers no excuse. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week ended September 19, down 1,000 from the prior week's revised level. Claims at that level do not, on their own, argue for cheaper long-term money, and the bond market did not treat them as if they did.

Communications up 1.3%; eight sectors lower

Strip out Meta and the session looks different. Meta is 22.5% of the communications sector fund AXLC and contributed 1.01 percentage points of that fund's 1.3% gain. Alphabet's two share classes added 0.26 percentage points, about a quarter of Meta's contribution.

Eight of the 11 Select Sector funds still closed lower.

Health care fund AXLV rose 0.6%, helped by Eli Lilly's 2.9% gain.

ASPY closed lower for a third session, as did the Dow industrials fund ADIA. Neither index move was large. BRSP fell 0.5% on the day. Goldman Sachs, 10.8% of ADIA by weight, fell 1.4% and was the largest drag on a 0.3% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 162 points to 51,349.98.

Oracle showed the physical constraint on the AI build-out, on a day when an AI product launch held the indexes still. Reuters reported that Oracle sent a force majeure notice, a legal claim that events outside its control may excuse it from contract terms, to a Blue Owl Capital unit developing the Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico, citing potential delays securing power. "Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule," Oracle said. Reuters reported that Blue Owl said the notice did not change the project's financial commitments. Oracle shares still fell 3.5% to $139.53. Blue Owl fell 3.6%. Nebius Group, which sells computing capacity for model training, rose 7.4% after Bank of America raised revenue estimates and BNP Paribas upgraded the shares.

Oil fund jumps 2.9%; energy stocks do not

Crude did the day's other real work. The oil fund BUSO, which holds near-term West Texas Intermediate futures, closed 2.9% higher. West Texas Intermediate was at $95.32, up 3.4%, as of 4:24 p.m. ET; Brent was at $107.54, up 4.3%. All 10 energy-futures funds in the session screen closed higher, at a median 3.1%.

The energy sector fund AXLE rose only 0.4%. Exxon Mobil, 23.5% of that fund, gained 0.5%. Farther out the curve, December WTI was at $91.52 and June 2027 was at $79.40, the shape of a disruption priced as temporary. BUSO is still down 1.4% over five sessions after this week's slide and bounce. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Late in the day the Senate rejected a war-powers resolution that would have directed a withdrawal from Iran, 49-50.

Stock-fund volume was quiet. ASPY traded at 0.95 times its 20-session median, the Nasdaq-100 fund AQQQ at 0.86 times, ADIA among its lightest 20 sessions. The activity was in Treasurys, high yield, and oil.

Last Wednesday, September 16, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate increase since 2023. The 10-year yield fell to 4.94% the next session. Over the five sessions through Thursday, AQQQ is up 3.4% and BTLT is at a 52-week low. The 4.94% print did not last.