Norges Bank hike to 4.50% reverses last year's cuts

Norges Bank's Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee voted unanimously to raise the policy rate from 4.25% to 4.50%, effective Friday. A Reuters poll of 28 economists taken September 17-21 had split 16-12 in favor of the move, which fully reverses two cuts the bank made last year. Governor Ida Wolden Bache said the committee is "prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed." The new Monetary Policy Report's path does not take that step: it is consistent with the rate remaining at 4.50% for a time, then falling from late 2027 toward just below 3.5%.

Danske Bank had favored a hold, arguing that policy was already restrictive. Nordea had called for the hike, on the view that inflation, while cooling, remains too high. Most of the economists in the Reuters poll saw 4.50% as the peak.

Inflation has been above the 2% target for several years. Headline CPI ran at 3.3% in the year to August; CPI-ATE, the underlying gauge that strips tax changes and energy, was 3.0%. The economy is running a little cold, with registered unemployment at 2.1% in August, even as inflation remains above target. Bache said the inflation outlook further ahead had not changed much since June. The rate path is little changed near term but higher further out than in June, a revision Norges Bank tied to higher rates abroad. The new path peaks at 4.60%, compared with 4.55% in June, slightly above the 4.50% rate it holds for a time. The report projects CPI inflation easing to 2.1% in 2029.

The krone strengthened to 10.76 per euro at 8:06 a.m. GMT from 10.79 just before the announcement, according to Reuters. The hike follows the Federal Reserve's September 16 increase of its target range to 3.75%-4.00% and the Bank of Japan's September 18 move to guide the overnight call rate to around 1.25%. Norges Bank's report noted that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have recently raised rates.

The US-listed funds built to hold Norwegian stocks are Global X's CNORW, graded C, and iShares' DENOR, graded D. Energy is about 30% of each book, led by Equinor and DNB. For a dollar holder, a firmer krone against the euro raises the dollar value of those shares. The next scheduled Norges Bank decision is November 5; any further increase, the committee said, depends on whether inflation is coming down toward 2%.