October CPI arrives Tuesday without the yearly comparison
Interest-rate futures put the chance of a December rate increase at about 80% after Friday’s jobs report, and the Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes later Tuesday.
Key takeaways
October’s consumer price report arrives Tuesday, Nov. 10, without the yearly comparison the release usually carries.
On Friday, Nov. 6, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 165,000 jobs in October, and revised September’s gain up to 60,000 from 29,000. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 65,000 jobs for October. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from 4.2% in September, Reuters reported.
After that report, interest-rate futures put the chance of a quarter-point increase at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 8-9 meeting at about 80%, up from about 67% on Thursday, Nov. 5, Reuters reported. About 80% is the favored outcome, not a sure one.
The Fed does not meet this week. On Oct. 28 it held the target range at 3.75% to 4% and said inflation remains elevated. A quarter-point increase would take that range to 4% to 4.25%.
What Tuesday’s report will not show
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. It will not publish a 12-month change for the overall index, or for the core index that leaves out food and energy. The bureau has said it will not publish those yearly changes for October 2026 where the October 2025 index is missing, because it could not collect prices during that year’s government shutdown.
Some narrower categories may still show a change from a year ago, where last October’s index exists. The overall yearly rate and the core yearly rate will not. A yearly forecast published anywhere else cannot be checked against Tuesday’s release, because those comparisons will not be in it.
What Tuesday can show is the change from September. The bureau reported on Oct. 14 that the index rose 0.6% that month, up from 0.4% in August, and was 3.7% higher than a year earlier. In that report, core prices rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year.
On Friday, Nov. 13, the bureau publishes the October producer price index, a measure of prices businesses receive, also at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. It is the other inflation report before the December meeting.
Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes later Tuesday
The Treasury auctions $42 billion of 10-year notes at 1 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, the middle of a $125 billion refunding announced Nov. 4. The inflation report is out at 8:30 that morning, so buyers at this sale will have seen it.
Monday’s auction is $58 billion of 3-year notes at 1 p.m. Eastern time, before anyone has the inflation report. On Thursday, Nov. 12, the Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds at the same hour. About $97 billion of the week’s total replaces notes and bonds that mature Nov. 15, and about $28 billion is new borrowing.
The Treasury’s published yields on Friday, Nov. 6, were 4.86% on the 10-year note and 5.26% on the 30-year bond. The yield at each auction is the return buyers demand to take the debt.
The 10-year yield fell to 4.86% after the Fed held
- 10-year · 4.9%
- 30-year · 5.3%
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF holds Treasuries with seven to ten years remaining. A new 10-year note, with a full decade left, sits at the edge of that range.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT holds Treasuries with more than 20 years left, and Thursday’s 30-year bond falls in that range. Bond prices move the other way from yields, so a higher yield is a lower price for the Treasuries those funds hold.
Veterans Day and bond ETFs
Wednesday, Nov. 11, is Veterans Day. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s holiday schedule shows stock exchanges open and banks closed, so the day is not a settlement date. Shares of IEF and TLT can trade, but a trade made Wednesday does not settle until Thursday, when the banks reopen.
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the industry group that recommends when bond desks open, asked on Oct. 28 for a full close in U.S. dollar bonds, including Treasuries. The close is a recommendation. Each firm decides whether its bond desk opens.
If dealers follow it, the Treasuries inside the funds are not trading while the shares are. The price on the screen is what buyers and sellers of the shares will pay each other. It can sit above or below the value of the bonds, because those bonds are not being traded.
CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials
CoreWeave rents out the computing used to build and run artificial-intelligence systems. Its third-quarter call is at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, after the inflation report and the 10-year auction. The company set that time on Oct. 27.
On Friday, Nov. 6, CNBC reported that the yield on CoreWeave’s bond due in 2032, which pays 9.625% a year, had climbed above 16%. A yield that far above the interest the bond pays means the price has fallen, and that buyers were demanding a return above 16% to hold the debt. CNBC said the climb highlights concern about paying for the artificial-intelligence buildout.
On Thursday, Nov. 12, two companies that sell into that buildout report. Cisco releases results for the quarter ended Oct. 24 after the close, and holds its call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, the company said on Nov. 3. Applied Materials holds its call the same day, also at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time.
Cisco sells the networking equipment artificial-intelligence systems use. Applied Materials sells the tools used to make the chips. Both are holdings of Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ, and Applied Materials is also a holding of iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX.
Applied Materials is 3.6% of SOXX; Cisco is 1.8% of QQQ
Thursday is when a holder of either fund hears whether customers are still placing those orders.
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