Stocks rose on Friday's weak jobs report, and the 10-year yield rose too

Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, against the 90,000 economists had expected, and on Friday stocks rose while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.28%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that number, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%.

ASPY, the fund that holds the S&P 500's stocks, rose 0.7% on Friday. The 10-year yield was up from 5.24% on Thursday. BTLT, the fund that holds US Treasurys with more than 20 years left to maturity, fell 0.3%.

A weak jobs report usually pulls long-term yields down. Friday's yield went up.

CME FedWatch, a measure based on interest-rate futures, put the chance of another rate increase in October at 22%, down from 64% a week ago. The same measure still put a December increase at 87%.

The Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September and meets again on October 28. The debate is about whether to wait, not whether to cut.

Japan's Nikkei rose 2.4% on Monday, October 5. Tokyo had already closed on Friday when the jobs report came out. The index finished just under 70,000, after trading above that level for the first time in three months, and technology stocks led.

China and South Korea were closed for holidays. Hong Kong rose 0.3%.

Before the New York open, S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.3%, and Dow futures were down 0.2%.

The 10-year yield was 5.255%, a little under Friday's close.

The Strait of Hormuz, a main route for the world's oil, is still closed. On Sunday, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said it would not reopen until the United States met seven conditions from a June agreement.

Brent crude, the price for oil shipped by sea past the strait, was $102.81, up 0.5%. The US price was $90.58, down 0.6%.

Saudi Arabia cut the November price of its main grade for Asian buyers by $3, to $5 a barrel below the average of Oman and Dubai prices, the widest discount since June 2020. Traders had expected a $3 increase. Aramco raised European prices by $3 a barrel at the same time, and people familiar with the plans said last week it had been weighing discounts on oil loaded off Oman to offset record freight rates.

France

France's CAC 40 was down 0.95% in morning trading. Germany's DAX was down 0.2%, and London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2%.

The euro touched $1.1161 in Asian trading, its weakest since May 2025. It has fallen for four weeks in a row.

The extra yield on French 10-year debt over German debt rose above 1.5 percentage points in Friday's trading, the widest gap since 2011. The euro's drop is being tied to France's heavy public debt and a political deadlock ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Services survey

At 10 a.m. ET, the Institute for Supply Management releases its September survey of service companies. Forecasters expect 55.0, after 55.4 in August. A reading above 50 means the sector is still expanding, and it has been for 26 months.

In August, employment was 47.8, below 50 for a second month and in 13 of 18 months. Prices were 72.6, above 70 for the fifth time in six months.

If employment is still below 50, that fits Friday's rise in stocks. If prices are still above 70, that fits a 10-year yield that rose.