Skip to content

In Markets

Nasdaq closes at a record as the 10-year yield rises to 5.31%

The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record on Monday, October 5, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest since 2002 and the Treasury's afternoon reading was 5.31%.

· 3 min read · ETF.net Research

Key takeaways

  • The Nasdaq set a record even as yields climbed.
  • The 5.31% print was not the day's high.
  • Monday was not the start of the Treasury slide.
  • Brazilian stocks jumped, and crude was not the reason.

The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record on Monday, Reuters reported, rising 1.1% to 27,477, while the 10-year Treasury yield finished the afternoon at 5.31%.

CNBC said the 10-year jumped to 5.347% during the session, its highest since April 3, 2002. The 5.31% figure is the Treasury's reading from prices around 3:30 p.m. in New York, up from 5.28% on Friday.

The slide in long-term Treasurys is older than Monday. TLT, the fund that holds US government bonds due in more than 20 years, fell 0.5% to $77.11 and traded as low as $76.69, its lowest in a year. Its price is down 5.7% since September 22.

TLT has fallen 5.7% since September 22

TLT daily closes, September 22–October 5, 2026

TLT. Trend: down. 10 points from $82 to $77, range $77 to $82. Use the arrow keys to read each point.
2026-09-222026-10-05

Almost all of the decline came before Monday.

SPY, the fund that holds the S&P 500, rose 0.7% to $774.88. The index closed at 7,774, about 0.5% below its 52-week high.

QQQ, the fund that holds the Nasdaq-100, rose 0.9% to $756.20, its highest close in a year.

Reuters said Nvidia and Microsoft lifted the Nasdaq, with investors focused on a dip in oil, after Friday's weak hiring reduced the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase this month. Citing the CME FedWatch gauge, Reuters said traders see a 24% chance of a hike at this month's meeting, down from 70% a week ago.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% in September. On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers added 29,000 jobs, short of the 84,000 that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected.

SpaceX added more to QQQ than Nvidia did. It makes up 2.8% of the fund and rose 7.6% to $171, about a quarter of the fund's gain. Nvidia rose 2.1%.

A political trade, not an oil trade

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro took 47% of the vote in Sunday's first round of Brazil's presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took about 45%. Neither won a majority.

EWZ, the fund that holds Brazilian stocks, rose 12.5% to $42.98, its highest close in a year. Volume was more than six times its recent average.

EWZ gapped higher after Brazil's first-round vote

EWZ daily closes, August 21–October 5, 2026

EWZ. Trend: up. 31 points from $35 to $43, range $35 to $43. Use the arrow keys to read each point.
2026-08-212026-10-05

It had traded between $35 and $39 since late August.

Financials are 34% of the fund. In New York, Nu Holdings, the second-largest holding, rose 13%, and Itaú Unibanco, the third, rose 15%. Vale, the largest holding, rose 2.8%.

Petrobras rose 11.5% in New York and traded at its highest in a year, even as crude was down 2.1%, at $89.24 just after 4 p.m. in New York. The Group of Seven had agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, and exports from the Middle East rose.

Brazil Stock Guide said that split suggested investors were cutting the discount they attach to political interference in fuel prices and in how Petrobras spends its money.

Bolsonaro and Lula meet again on October 25.

ETFs in this story

AQQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 175/100BTLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF68/100AEWZiShares MSCI Brazil ETF73/100ASPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF71/100

Frequently asked questions

How high did the Nasdaq close?

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1% to close at 27,477.

Was 5.31% the high for the 10-year?

CNBC said the 10-year jumped to 5.347% during the session, its highest since April 3, 2002, while 5.31% was the Treasury's reading from prices around 3:30 p.m. in New York.

Why did the Nasdaq rise while yields rose?

Reuters said Nvidia and Microsoft lifted the Nasdaq, with investors focused on a dip in oil after Friday's weak hiring reduced the chance of a Fed rate increase this month.

How likely is a Fed rate hike this month?

Citing the CME FedWatch gauge, Reuters said traders see a 24% chance of a hike at this month's meeting, down from 70% a week ago.

Related articles