The biggest Brazil fund gained less than a small-cap fund after Bolsonaro's lead
The $11.3 billion iShares fund rose 14.0% in the week through Friday, October 9, against 24.5% for the small-cap fund, with a runoff still set for October 25.
Key takeaways
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, EWZ, holds $11.3 billion, 90% of the assets in the seven US-listed Brazil funds. It rose 14.0% in the week through Friday, October 9, after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil's presidential election. That was one of the two smallest gains among the seven, all of which finished higher.
The Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF, FLBR, which holds $709 million and also tracks large Brazilian companies, rose 13.6%.
On Sunday, October 4, Brazil's electoral court counted 47.03% of the vote for Bolsonaro and 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead after most polls had shown Lula leading. Neither reached 50%, so the two meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25.
Most of that 14.0% came on Monday, October 5, when the iShares fund rose 12.5%. The Ibovespa, São Paulo's main stock index, rose 7.7% that day.
Gramercy, an emerging-markets investment firm, wrote on Friday that the Ibovespa's jump was its biggest one-day gain since March 2020, and that the Brazilian real strengthened more than 4%, to just under 5 per dollar. The iShares fund is priced in dollars, so a stronger real raised the value of the Brazilian shares it holds.
Not the same companies
The iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF, EWZS, holds $318 million and rose 24.5%. A holder of the iShares fund did not own that gain. The small-cap fund holds smaller Brazilian companies.
The small-cap fund kept climbing after Monday
- EWZ · 43.54
- EWZS · 17.05
As of Thursday, October 8, financial companies were 34% of the iShares fund. Its largest positions were Nu Holdings, the digital bank, Itaú Unibanco, a large Brazilian bank, Vale, the iron-ore miner, and Petrobras, the oil company.
The Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 2X ETF, BRZU, rose 27.9%, almost exactly twice the iShares gain for the week. Direxion seeks twice one day's move in the index the iShares fund tracks, and says that multiple is not the target past a single trading day.
A holder who keeps the Direxion fund into the runoff is not owed twice the index's move over that stretch.
Already in the price
The first-round lead was under 2 percentage points. Foreign Policy reported on Friday that no presidential candidate has won a Brazilian runoff after losing the first round since the country returned to democracy in the 1980s, though it said a Lula victory is still possible on the numbers.
If you hold the iShares fund, you are up 14.0% after that narrow lead, most of it from Monday, in a portfolio led by those four companies. Brazil does not choose the winner until Sunday, October 25.
ETFs in this story
Frequently asked questions
How much did the biggest Brazil fund gain versus the small-cap fund?
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF rose 14.0% in the week through Friday, October 9, against 24.5% for the iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF.
Did Bolsonaro win the presidency?
He led the first round with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, but neither reached 50%, so they meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25.
How did the stronger real affect the iShares fund?
The iShares fund is priced in dollars, so a stronger real raised the value of the Brazilian shares it holds.
Does the Direxion fund owe twice the index's move through the runoff?
A holder who keeps the Direxion fund into the runoff is not owed twice the index's move over that stretch.
