The long Treasury fund fell 2.4%. The short one barely moved
The fund of Treasurys due in 20 years or more lost 2.4% in the week ending Friday, September 25, and the 10-year yield finished at 5.17%.
The gap between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield opened on Thursday and widened on Friday. On Wednesday the two yields rose together, and the short Treasury fund fell that day.
The Federal Reserve had raised its target range by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, September 16, to 3.75% to 4%. A week later, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr told a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that the increase was "an adjustment in the right direction." He added, "In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion." That morning, S&P Global's preliminary survey put U.S. business activity at 58.4, up from 56.0 in August. S&P Global called it the fastest pace since July 2021, and said price pressures had intensified.
On Wednesday the 2-year yield rose 14 basis points, from 4.71% to 4.85%, and the 10-year yield rose 15 basis points, from 4.96% to 5.11%. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. The fund of Treasurys due in one to three years, SHY, fell 0.2% that day.
On Thursday the 10-year yield rose to 5.18%, while the 2-year yield rose 2 basis points, to 4.87%. On Friday the 2-year yield fell 6 basis points, to 4.81%, and the 10-year yield finished at 5.17%. From Friday, September 18, the 2-year yield was up 5 basis points and the 10-year yield was up 16 basis points. The 30-year yield, a closer match for the bonds a long Treasury fund holds, rose from 5.34% to 5.49% over that same stretch.
SHY finished the week down less than 0.1%. The fund of Treasurys due in seven to ten years, IEF, fell 0.9%. The fund of Treasurys due in 20 years or more, TLT, fell 2.4%.
TLT dropped 2.4% last week. SHY was little changed.
- SHY · 81.21
- IEF · 90
- TLT · 79.32
With distributions reinvested, its total return is down 4.4% over one month and 8.5% over three months.
On Thursday, when TLT fell 1.3%, ETF Action recorded $402 million going into the fund. LSEG's separate count for the week showed $2.5 billion going into short-term bond funds and $1.47 billion leaving government-bond funds.
Frequently asked
How much did each Treasury fund fall?
The long fund fell 2.4%, the seven-to-ten-year fund fell 0.9%, and the short fund finished down less than 0.1%.
What happened to Treasury yields in the week?
From September 18, the 2-year yield rose 5 basis points and the 10-year yield rose 16 basis points, finishing at 5.17%.
Did the Federal Reserve raise rates?
The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16, to 3.75% to 4%.
Were investors selling the long Treasury fund?
On Thursday, when it fell 1.3%, ETF Action recorded $402 million going into the fund.