Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz deal, and oil is up more than 4% before the open
WTI crude was up 4.2% at $96.31 before the US open on Monday, September 28, 2026, after President Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Key takeaways
President Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil was up more than 4% before Monday's US open.
Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, said the rejection is driving oil higher and weighing on Treasurys. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said high bond yields and a high oil price are weighing on gold, and that higher oil is keeping inflation front and center. Gold fell with bond prices, not as a shelter from a shut strait.
The war began with US and Israeli strikes on Saturday, February 28. Iran shut the strait, and the United States has blockaded Iranian ports. The offer Trump turned down on Saturday, September 26, was a seven-day ceasefire that would reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks if Washington lifted that blockade.
On Sunday, Trump told Axios he still expects talks this week.
"They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand."
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said the strait will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met, and that Tehran will not back down.
On Friday, oil fell on hopes of a deal and stocks rose. WTI crude settled at $92.41, down 2.3%. USO, the fund that tracks the price of oil, fell 3.1%, and SPY, the fund that holds the S&P 500, rose 0.5%.
USO dropped Friday after a two-day rebound; TLT kept sliding
- USO · 148.33
- TLT · 79.32
- GLD · 393.41
Just before 7 a.m. Eastern, WTI was at $96.31, up 4.2% from Friday. That rebound is larger than Friday's drop. USO was up 4.4% before the open.
The 10-year yield was at 5.21% in early dealing, up more than 2 basis points, after easing on Friday as oil fell. TLT, the fund that holds long-term US Treasurys, was down 0.5% before the open. It had already fallen 2.4% over the five sessions through Friday.
Gold futures were at $4,190.80, down 3%. GLD, the fund that holds gold, was down 3.1% before the open.
SPY was down 0.5% before the open. The VIX, a gauge of expected swings in the S&P 500, was at 16.39, up 10% from Friday, still far from the past year's high of 35.3.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, September 16, and meets again on Tuesday, October 27 and Wednesday, October 28. As of Friday, September 25, CME FedWatch put the chance of another increase at 66.4%.
Wednesday, September 30 brings the August personal income and outlays report, which includes the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Friday, October 2 brings the report on September hiring. Those releases are the test of whether another increase still fits.
Frequently asked
What deal did Trump reject?
A seven-day ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks if Washington lifted its blockade of Iranian ports.
Why did Trump say no?
He told Axios it was a deal he might have agreed to a year ago, and that Iran overplayed its hand.
Is the Strait of Hormuz reopening?
Iran's foreign minister said the strait will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met, and that Tehran will not back down.
Why did gold fall?
Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said high bond yields and a high oil price are weighing on gold, which fell with bond prices rather than as a shelter from a shut strait.
