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Tuesday's oil spike showed up in Treasurys, credit, and munis

In the week through Friday, September 4, WTI crude rose 9.7% to $91.48, the United States Oil Fund gained 9.5%, August payrolls increased 162,000, and the S&P 500 fund rose 0.1%.

An aerial view of a complex oil refinery bathed in warm sunset light under a cloudy sky.
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· 3 min read · ETF.net Research

USOXLEUCOSPYTLTHYGLQDLULG

BlackRock's long Treasury fund TLT dropped 0.8% on Tuesday, the same session West Texas Intermediate had its largest daily gain of the week, 5.2%. The firm's investment-grade credit fund LQD fell 0.9% that day, its high-yield fund HYG 0.9%. By Friday, 105 of 106 municipal-bond funds had finished the week lower, a median decline of 1.0%. State Street's S&P 500 fund SPY still rose 0.1% for the week, as if none of that had happened.

USO, TLT, and SPY, rebased to prior Friday close, Aug. 28–Sept. 4

The oil fund jumped Tuesday; long Treasurys fell the same session

The oil fund jumped Tuesday; long Treasurys fell the same session: USO from 129.7 to 142; TLT from 82.88 to 82.21; SPY from 769.35 to 770.24. Use the arrow keys to read each point.100Tue
2026-08-282026-09-04
  • USO · 142
  • TLT · 82.21
  • SPY · 770.24

Duration's whole week was Tuesday; the index closed flat.

West Texas Intermediate settled Friday at $91.48 a barrel, up 9.7% from $83.40 at the prior Friday's close. Reuters reported that prices rose as U.S.-Iran fighting raised the risk of supply disruptions. Among 4,662 priced U.S.-listed ETFs, 2,298 finished higher and 2,326 lower. A coin-flip week on the stock-fund board, and a 9.7% week in crude, is not a quiet week.

Oil futures, not oil stocks

The United States Oil Fund USO, a $1.73 billion pool of near-dated WTI futures run by USCF, gained 9.5%, a shade behind the crude itself. It charges 0.86%. Energy futures funds as a group, eight of them, returned a median 6.0%, with seven of eight higher.

State Street's energy-sector fund XLE, which holds the energy companies in the S&P 500, has $42.7 billion in assets and charges 0.08%. It rose 2.2%. Exxon Mobil is 19.9% of that fund and rose 1.8%. Chevron is 15.2% and rose 3.3%. The refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero rose 5.4% and 5.2%. A 9.7% barrel and those stock moves are the gap. The prices do not explain it.

USO and XLE, rebased to prior Friday close, Aug. 28–Sept. 4

Futures kept the week's oil jump; energy stocks lagged

Futures kept the week's oil jump; energy stocks lagged: USO from 129.7 to 142; XLE from 62.68 to 64.07. Use the arrow keys to read each point.100
2026-08-282026-09-04
  • USO · 142
  • XLE · 64.07

USO held Tuesday's spike; XLE gave back its midweek high.

ProShares' fund that seeks twice the daily performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI Crude Oil Index, a multi-maturity WTI index, UCO, rose 11.1%. All five inverse energy funds in the group finished lower, a median decline of 4.4%. Near-dated futures tracked the barrel. The equity fund, an order of magnitude larger and cheaper, did not.

The week's crude moved the futures funds. It did not move energy stocks in any comparable size, and it did not move the stock index.

What it holdsFundWeek
WTI crude futuresUSO+9.5%
2x balanced WTI indexUCO+11.1%
S&P 500 energy companiesXLE+2.2%
U.S. large-cap stocksSPY+0.1%
20+ year U.S. TreasurysTLT-0.8%
U.S. high-yield bondsHYG-0.7%

Bonds fell on Tuesday, not on the jobs report

TLT lost 0.8% for the week. LQD lost 0.8%, and HYG lost 0.7%. All 13 high-yield municipal funds fell.

The damage in Treasurys and credit was Tuesday's. Friday did not add to those losses. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August, against a 31,000 average over the prior 12 months, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. June and July were revised a combined 55,000 higher. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% to $37.75, up 3.1% over the year. SPY fell 0.4% on the session. TLT rose 0.2%.

The 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.37% on Friday, the 10-year at 4.78%, on the Treasury's own curve. The Federal Reserve's next scheduled policy meeting is September 15-16. A flat week in stocks did not make duration free.

Lululemon's twice-daily fund lost 34%

The week's largest liquid gains sat in funds that seek twice a single stock's daily move. Lululemon shares fell 17.4% on Friday after the athletic-apparel company cut its full-year outlook, and 16.7% for the week. Leverage Shares' $8.2 million fund that seeks twice that stock's daily move, LULG, lost 34.1% and traded 10.4 times the prior week's dollar volume.

A 0.1% print on SPY is what an average looks like when a 9.7% barrel, a Tuesday drop in duration and credit, and a 34% hole in a twice-daily fund all happened inside the same five sessions. The average is not the holding.

Frequently asked

What triggered the sharp rise in oil prices?

Prices rose as fighting between the U.S. and Iran raised the risk of supply disruptions.

Did energy stocks keep pace with the jump in crude?

No, energy stock funds rose just 2.2% while oil futures surged 9.5%.

Did Friday's strong jobs report cause the weekly losses in bonds?

No, the damage to bond funds occurred on Tuesday during the oil spike, and Friday's payrolls data did not add to those losses.