U.S. oil fund down 11% in five sessions, WTI at $89.89
Wednesday, September 23, 2026: West Texas Intermediate is at $89.89 a barrel, down 0.7%; the S&P 500 fund SPY is indicated 0.09% higher before the open.
The U.S. oil fund USO has fallen 11.0% over five straight sessions through Tuesday, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Brent, the global barrel, is at $99.29 as of about 7 a.m. Eastern, barely changed overnight and $9.40 above West Texas Intermediate. That spread began 2026 around $4 a barrel and peaked at $25 on March 31 after the strait's de facto closure. Crude is still below $100. U.S. stock funds are not yet being forced to choose between technology funds coming off five straight gains and a financials fund that just had its heaviest volume in 20 sessions. The 9:45 a.m. surveys and a 10:05 a.m. speech from Governor Michael S. Barr can still force that choice.
President Donald Trump told reporters in New York that U.S. and Iranian officials had just finished a three-hour meeting he called very good and very productive, with another session already scheduled. The fuller diplomatic account is in our overnight report, Trump says U.S. envoys met Iranian officials for three hours as Tehran offers a seven-day Hormuz reopening. The oil price already had a version of that story in it: Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz within seven days has not been matched by a reopening.
Nasdaq higher, financials and energy not
The Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ has now risen in five straight sessions, 6.1% over that stretch, and the technology sector fund XLK has the same five-day winning run.
The oil fund fell as the Nasdaq-100 kept climbing
- USO · 144.08
- QQQ · 747.46
The Nasdaq Composite closed Tuesday at 27,244.28, up 0.45%, a session the Associated Press described as a record, and the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.82%. The S&P 500 was unchanged at 7,764.64. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.36% to 51,863.69. In extended hours QQQ is indicated 0.01% higher; the Russell 2000 fund IWM is indicated 0.31% lower.
The financials sector fund XLF dropped 2.0% on its heaviest volume in 20 sessions, the worst of the 11 SPDR sector funds. The energy sector fund XLE fell 1.1% for a third straight decline. The materials sector fund XLB rose 1.6%.
Financials were the worst of the 11 sectors
- +1.6%
- +1.0%
- +0.7%
- +0.5%
- +0.2%
- +0.09%
- −0.2%
- −0.3%
- −1.1%
- −1.1%
- −2.0%
Among U.S.-listed ETFs, 3,451 closed up and 1,929 closed down, so the flat S&P 500 was a cap-weighted result, not a broad retreat.
Flash PMIs, Barr, and oil inventories
Japan is shut for the Autumnal Equinox. Asia was mixed and Europe is lower. S&P Global's flash eurozone composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September from 52.0 in August, its highest reading since April 2023. The U.S. flash surveys print at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, covering manufacturing, services, and the composite. A U.S. reading that matches Europe's would sit uncomfortably next to last week's rate increase.
The 10-year Treasury yield finished Tuesday at 4.96%, with the 2-year at 4.71% and the 30-year at 5.29%. The long Treasury fund TLT was little changed. Those yields sit against a federal funds target range of 3.75% to 4% after the Federal Open Market Committee's quarter-point increase on September 16, its first since 2023. The committee's median projection for year-end is 4.1%, another quarter-point from here. Fed-funds futures still imply another hike is more likely than not at the October meeting.
Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at 10:05 a.m. on the economic outlook and housing at a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago community-development summit. The Energy Information Administration's petroleum status report follows at 10:30 a.m., the inventory print the oil market still has to clear even if the diplomatic headlines stay friendly.
Two large service companies report before the opening bell. Cintas, the uniform and facility-services company, is due to release fiscal 2027 first-quarter results, with analysts looking for $1.35 a share on $2.98 billion of revenue and a webcast at 10:00 a.m. Paychex, the payroll and human-resources processor, is also due before the open, with estimates of $1.32 a share on $1.63 billion of revenue and a call at 9:30 a.m.
What would undo this morning's setup is not another quote from the United Nations hallway. It is a 9:45 a.m. survey that looks like Europe's 53.1, Barr talking housing as if another hike were already in view, or an inventory draw that puts $100 back in view while Hormuz is still shut. Technology funds can keep rising either way. Financials and energy funds cannot.
Frequently asked
Why is the oil fund falling while the Strait of Hormuz is still closed?
Diplomacy has been priced in: Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz within seven days and a three-hour U.S.-Iran meeting Trump called productive have not been matched by an actual reopening.
How wide is the Brent-WTI spread now?
Brent at $99.29 is $9.40 above West Texas Intermediate, down from a $25 peak on March 31 and up from about $4 at the start of 2026.
What can move markets today?
The U.S. flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, Governor Michael S. Barr's 10:05 a.m. speech on the outlook and housing, and the EIA petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m.
Where do rates stand after last week's Fed meeting?
The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4% after the September 16 quarter-point increase, with the committee's median year-end projection at 4.1% and futures implying another October hike is more likely than not.