UK flash PMI falls to 51.7 as costs and selling prices accelerate

Britain's private sector kept expanding in September, but only just. Chris Williamson, S&P Global's chief business economist, said the flash purchasing-managers survey pointed to output growth "consistent with the economy growing at a mere 0.1% quarterly rate," even as firms' costs and selling prices accelerated.

The composite output index, which blends manufacturing and services, fell to 51.7 from 52.5 in August, a three-month low and below the 52.0 reading economists had expected. Readings above 50 signal expansion. S&P Global said private-sector employment decreased marginally, extending two years of job losses, and input-cost inflation accelerated to a three-month high. Prices charged rose at their fastest pace since June.

That mix tightens the bind on the Bank of England: growth at a rounding error while prices reaccelerate, and a November tightening already priced as more likely than not. The Bank last week held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a quarter-point increase. UK inflation is already 3.1%, and the Bank has said it is likely to rise further. Markets on Tuesday priced roughly a 60% chance of a rate increase on November 5, a week after Chancellor John Healey's October 28 Budget.

US-listed UK equity funds have not yet traded the print, so it means little, yet. The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF BEWU and Franklin's FTSE UK fund AFLGB last closed Tuesday, both unhedged sterling exposures into a central bank that may tighten.

Williamson said the upturn in the survey's price gauges suggested the Bank "looks likely to keep a hawkish bias," while "the worryingly lacklustre pace of business growth underscores the risk to the economy from higher borrowing costs."