UK retail volumes rise 0.5% in August, beating forecasts of a 0.2% drop
Great Britain retail-sales volumes rose 0.5% in August, the ONS said Friday, September 18, against a Reuters poll that expected a 0.2% decline.
British households increased the quantity of goods they bought in August, in the same week UK inflation rose to 3.1% on motor fuel from 2.9% in July. Total retail-sales volumes, including automotive fuel, were at their second-highest level since April 2022, just below June, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. On Thursday the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 decision, the minority voting for 4%. Reuters reported Friday that money markets were pricing roughly a 65% chance of an increase in November.
"For now, the resilience of the economy is one more thing nudging the Bank of England closer to raising interest rates," said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. The Bank next announces Bank Rate on November 5. The pound was last up 0.1% at $1.337 after the sales figures, Reuters said.
Volumes rose 0.5% from July and 2.4% from a year earlier, after an unrevised 0.5% decline in July. Non-food stores rose 0.6%. The ONS said department stores recovered from July, when retailers had pointed to stock shortages, and that clothing stores and non-store retailers, including online, recouped part of July's drop. Automotive-fuel volumes fell as prices rose sharply. Total spending, in-store plus online, rose 1.3%, faster than volumes. Online values were up 2.5% on the month and 8.9% on the year.
The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF EWU and the Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF FLGB hold UK large-caps concentrated in banks, energy and pharmaceuticals, so the shopper in this print is a small input for a dollar holder. A November move in Bank Rate and in sterling is not.
HSBC, Shell and AstraZeneca are the three largest weights
- 11%
- 8.7%
- 7.7%
- 5.1%
- 4.2%
- 3.8%
- 3.5%
- 3.2%
- 3.2%
- 2.7%
The ONS publishes the next retail-sales report on October 23, two weeks before that decision.
Frequently asked
Why does a retail-sales print matter for the Bank of England?
A resilient economy is one more thing nudging the Bank toward raising rates, as Capital Economics put it, with markets pricing roughly a 65% chance of an increase in November.
What drove the increase?
Non-food stores rose, with department stores recovering from July's stock shortages and clothing and online retailers recouping part of July's drop, while automotive-fuel volumes fell as prices rose sharply.
Did spending rise faster than volumes?
Yes: total in-store plus online spending rose 1.3% against a 0.5% gain in volumes, with online values up 2.5% on the month.
What does this mean for UK equity ETFs?
Funds like EWU and FLGB hold large-caps concentrated in banks, energy and pharmaceuticals, so the British shopper is a small input for a dollar holder: the Bank Rate decision and sterling are not.