Adobe forecasts a record $275.1 billion in US online holiday sales

Adobe said on Monday that US online sales from November 1 to December 31 will reach a record $275.1 billion, up 6.7% from a year earlier.

Last year those two months came to $257.8 billion, up 6.8%. On October 6, 2025, Adobe had forecast 5.3% growth, and shoppers beat that call. The new forecast, at 6.7%, is a little below that 6.8% pace.

The figure measures online purchases at US retailers, drawn from more than 1 trillion visits to their sites. It leaves out stores, and it is not a forecast of Adobe's own revenue.

Deals match last year

Adobe said the deals will be on par with last season. Electronics are expected to peak at 30% off the listed price, and toys at 29%.

Cyber Monday, November 30, is still the biggest day in the forecast, at $15.1 billion, up 6.2%. Black Friday, November 27, is smaller, at $12.9 billion, but growing faster, up 9.2%. Adobe links that faster pace in part to the deals that day on televisions, clothing and appliances.

The shopper is under pressure

On Friday, September 25, the University of Michigan said its survey of consumers fell to 48.1, from 51.7 in August, the lowest reading in four months and 15% below January.

"Consumers do not believe that relief from high gas prices is on the horizon," said Joanne Hsu, director of the university's Surveys of Consumers. "They broadly expect gasoline prices to continue rising in both the short and long run."

Hsu tied the weaker outlook for business in the months ahead in part to fuel prices and renewed trade disputes. She said rising interest rates added to the pressure. On Wednesday, September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its target range for short-term rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75% to 4%.

Adobe also expects buy-now-pay-later plans, which let a shopper pay in installments, to drive $21.3 billion in online spending over November and December, up 6.6%.

Walmart, Kohl's and American Eagle have raised concerns about how much shoppers can spend ahead of the season. Adobe still expects a record, on deals it says will be on par with last year, when shoppers beat its call.