The Fed decides Wednesday, before Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report
Meta's free cash flow turned negative, artificial-intelligence spending is still rising, and futures put roughly 80% on a December hike.
Key takeaways
The Federal Reserve decides at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, before Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report on what their artificial-intelligence spending is producing and how they will pay for the next round.
Microsoft publishes results after the close that day. Alphabet's call is at 4:30 p.m. ET, and Amazon's is at 5 p.m. ET Thursday. The three are the largest companies still to report in a season that Reuters, citing LSEG data, said Friday is on pace for S&P 500 earnings growth of more than 32% from a year earlier, with about a third of the index reporting this week.
Meta's free cash flow turned negative
Meta Platforms reported Wednesday, Oct. 21, that operating cash flow was $32.79 billion and free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion. Capital spending, including payments on finance leases, was $34.91 billion, and revenue rose 26%, to $64.60 billion, the company said in its filing.
It raised the low end of its 2026 capital-spending range to $135 billion from $130 billion and left the top at $145 billion. The company called the new range narrowed. Raising the floor means the planned spending went up, not down.
"We expect to continue investing aggressively to support both our core business and emerging AI initiatives," it said in the filing.
Reuters said capital spending by the hyperscalers, the large cloud companies, is expected to be around $800 billion this year, and that investors are wary of whether spending on that scale can continue as financing costs rise.
Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are next to say whether that spending is showing up in revenue, and how they intend to pay for the next round.
Together they are 15% of the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, SPY. In the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1, QQQ, Microsoft is 6.2%, Alphabet 5.8% and Amazon 4.3%.
Futures price a hold, and a December increase
The Federal Reserve's policy committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes questions at 2:30 p.m.
This meeting does not include a Summary of Economic Projections, the committee's forecasts for growth, inflation and interest rates. The next set is scheduled with the Dec. 8-9 meeting. Wednesday brings a statement and a press conference, not a new forecast.
The target range is 3.75% to 4%, after an increase of a quarter of a percentage point on Sept. 16 that the committee approved 12 to 0. In its statement that day, the committee said inflation remains elevated and that the increase would support a timelier return to its 2% goal.
Fed funds futures late Friday implied a less than 10% chance of another increase on Wednesday, LSEG data cited by Reuters showed. Futures suggested a roughly 80% chance of one in December, Reuters reported.
Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, told Reuters he would be watching the press conference for any hint on the path.
"Does he say something to give an idea about December, because right now the expectation is there is going to be a hike," Todd said.
The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 5%, down 9 basis points from 5.09% on Oct. 16. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, IEF, rose 0.7% over that same week.
The 10-year Treasury ended Friday at 5%
The companies still to report have to say how they will pay for the next round of artificial-intelligence spending, against that yield and against a December increase that futures already price at roughly 80%.
Thursday's inflation report comes after the vote
At 8:30 a.m. Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its first estimate of third-quarter growth, after a 2.2% annualized pace in the second quarter, and September's personal income and spending report.
That report includes the personal consumption expenditures price index. The core index excludes food and energy, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis says the Federal Reserve watches that measure closely.
In August, the bureau reported, the core index rose 0.2% from the month before and 3.0% from a year earlier, and the full index, which includes energy, rose 0.3% and 3.4%.
Thursday's releases cannot change Wednesday's vote. They can change how firm December looks.
ExxonMobil and Chevron report Friday
Brent crude settled Friday at $116.72 a barrel, up $3.55 on the day. Reuters reported that close as the highest since April 29, and tied the rise to Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and to an oil spill that authorities in the United Arab Emirates reported. The Houthis are Yemen's Iran-backed armed group, CNBC reported.
ExxonMobil releases results before the open on Friday. Chevron's call is at 11 a.m. ET. Together they are 42% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF, XLE.
Exxon and Chevron dominate the energy sector fund
The hold is priced. The cash question is not.
Wednesday's statement can confirm the hold that futures already price. Warsh's answers are the first chance to hear whether December is as firm as futures imply.
The reports, starting after Wednesday's close, are where Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon say how they will pay for the next round.
Want more of our stories in Google’s Top Stories? Add etf.net as a preferred source on Google
