Hurricane Isaias heads for the Gulf Coast with 62.9% of Gulf oil shut in
Hurricane Isaias had winds of 85 mph on Thursday, October 8, and gCaptain, citing the Marine Minerals Administration, reported about 1.28 million barrels a day of Gulf oil shut in, 62.9% of Gulf oil.
Key takeaways
Hurricane Isaias strengthened to 85 mph on Thursday and is expected to reach the northern U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, with 62.9% of Gulf oil already shut in, gCaptain reported. A shut-in closes valves below the seafloor, often from shore, so the oil stops and cannot leak.
gCaptain, citing the Marine Minerals Administration, the Interior Department office that oversees offshore oil and gas, reported about 1.28 million barrels a day shut in. The count is from 12 operators as of 11 a.m. Central time, before the storm comes ashore.
Wednesday's count, from the minerals administration's own release, was 511,619 barrels a day, about a quarter of Gulf oil. Thursday's reported figure is about two and a half times that. Wednesday's barrels are the operators' estimate of what the closed wells would have produced that day.
gCaptain also reported that crews had left 121 of 371 manned platforms, up from eight on Wednesday, and that 57.4% of Gulf gas was shut in, about 1.13 billion cubic feet a day.
In a September 10 forecast, the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude production would average 13.8 million barrels a day in 2026. The barrels reported shut in are about 9.3% of that.
The National Hurricane Center, at 1 p.m. Central time, placed the center about 355 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at 10 mph. It is the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, more than four months after the season began in June. The center expects it to turn north on Friday.
The center said more strengthening is expected through early Friday, and that Isaias should still be a dangerous hurricane as it nears the coast Friday night.
"Preparations to protect life and property from storm surge and damaging winds in the warning area should be rushed to completion today," the center said.
A hurricane warning runs from Ocean Springs, on the Mississippi coast, to the line between Bay and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle. That stretch includes Mobile, Pensacola and Panama City.
The center says water could reach 5 to 7 feet above ground from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Florida, including Mobile Bay, if the highest surge arrives at high tide. A storm surge warning runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida.
Who closed wells
Shell said Wednesday it was evacuating everyone and shutting in production at five Gulf assets. It had already moved non-essential staff from a sixth.
Chevron said Wednesday it had started the same procedure at four of its nine operated Gulf facilities and was moving those crews ashore. Its other five were still producing at normal levels.
What oil prices did
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, was at $91.51 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up 3.7% from Wednesday's settlement. USO, the fund that holds near-term futures on that oil, was at $148.26, up 3.0%. XLE, the fund that holds energy companies in the S&P 500, was up 3.0%, at $65.27.
On Wednesday the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said a tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles.
"Constrained product flows, extreme logistics costs and high likelihood of Iranian escalation are keeping prices elevated," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy at MST Marquee, speaking about attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate traded as high as $93.20 and came off that high after President Donald Trump wrote that the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections."
What comes back
Recovery after a damaging storm can take weeks. Ida came ashore on August 29, 2021, and on September 23 the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which tracked Gulf shut-ins in 2021, still counted 16% of current Gulf oil shut in.
The minerals administration says platforms are inspected after a storm, and undamaged ones return after the usual checks. Whether this oil comes back depends on that inspection, and on what Isaias damages.
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Frequently asked questions
How much Gulf oil is shut in?
About 1.28 million barrels a day, 62.9% of Gulf oil, from 12 operators as of 11 a.m. Central time Thursday.
What does a shut-in do?
A shut-in closes valves below the seafloor, often from shore, so the oil stops and cannot leak.
When does Isaias reach the coast?
It is expected to reach the northern U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
How long can shut-in oil stay offline?
After Ida came ashore on August 29, 2021, 16% of Gulf oil was still shut in on September 23.
