Tech leads a higher premarket while the 10-year sits at its highest since 2007

Around 8:15 a.m. Eastern time, the Nasdaq-100 fund, AQQQ, was 0.7% above Thursday's close, with chipmakers leading. The S&P 500 fund, ASPY, was up 0.4%, and the fund that tracks the Dow industrials, ADIA, was up 0.3%, both against Thursday's close. The optimism is about artificial intelligence, and this week it has centered on Meta's Muse, a personal AI agent that has caught on with young users. Meta shares were flat before the bell. On Thursday the stock rose 4.5% and was the largest single contributor to both AQQQ and ASPY.

AQQQ is up 3.4% over five sessions, but that gain came earlier in the week. ADIA is down 1.1% over the same five sessions.

The Dow industrials index is heading for a fourth straight losing week.

Talks in stages

At that hour WTI crude, the US benchmark, was at $92.74 a barrel, down 2.0% from Thursday. Brent, the international benchmark, was at $105.23, down 1.3% and more than $12 above the US price. BUSO, the fund that holds US oil futures, was lower before the bell after rising 2.9% on Thursday.

The lower price came as the talks continued. In June the two sides reached an understanding that produced a ceasefire. It collapsed within weeks. A person familiar with the talks said Thursday that negotiators are exploring a deal in stages that would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf shipping lane at the center of the conflict, and the United States lift its blockade of Iranian ports. Qatar is helping to run the talks, the person said, and the two sides were pushing for a breakthrough at the United Nations meetings in New York. On Wednesday, Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told the General Assembly that Tehran would not allow freedom of navigation through the strait while sanctions and the blockade remain. A senior Iranian official called an arrangement in stages the most plausible way to end the impasse, with Iran allowing ships through in return for the United States lifting the blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets. The same official said, "The Americans know what they need to do but, because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low."

Yields still at the highs

The 10-year Treasury yield finished Thursday at 5.18%, its highest since 2007, up from 5.11% a day earlier and from 4.96% on Tuesday. The 30-year yield finished at 5.47%, its highest since 2004. Before the open, Treasuries steadied near those levels. BTLT, the fund that holds long-dated US Treasuries, closed Thursday at $79.42, its lowest price in the past year, down 1.3% on the day.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% last week. Interest-rate futures put a 71% chance on another quarter-point increase in October, up from around 50% earlier this week. The preliminary University of Michigan reading was 47.8, the second-lowest on record, and the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.6% from 4.0%. The final figure is due at 10 a.m. Eastern time, and August orders for long-lasting goods at 8:30 a.m. Either report can still move those odds. The rise in AQQQ is a separate story from that pricing, and the story is Muse.