Payrolls due after Waller; September hike odds still 50%
Friday, September 4, 2026: August nonfarm payrolls due at 8:30 a.m. ET after July's 23,000 decline; market-implied odds of a September rate increase are 50%, down from 63.2%.
The last U.S. labor report before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The pre-open bid is concentrated in large-cap technology and is not shared by the Dow or by small-cap funds. Invesco's Nasdaq-100 fund QQQ is 0.5% higher in extended hours as of 8:01 a.m., and State Street's technology-sector fund XLK is 0.8% higher. The S&P 500 fund SPY is 0.1% higher. The Dow industrials fund DIA and BlackRock's Russell 2000 fund IWM are unchanged. The S&P 500 already rose 1.1% on Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support leaving rates unchanged this month.
Thursday reversed SPY's slide into payrolls
This morning is the first check on whether that relief was early.
August payrolls and Waller's hold
July payrolls fell 23,000. The Dow Jones consensus for August is 53,000; other surveys print 56,000. Citi is at 20,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%. The forecast range runs from another 25,000 loss to a 121,000 gain, which is a polite way of saying none of these is a high-confidence number. Economists say August payrolls tend to undershoot forecasts because of a summer seasonal quirk. Local-government education employment dropped 49,600 in July and is expected to rebound. Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen put a 15,000 drag on the August count from the end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants.
A print in the mid-50,000s would still be a weak month. The question is whether it is weak in the way Waller can live with.
Market-implied odds of a rate increase at this month's meeting stood at 50%, down from 63.2% on Wednesday, after Waller said he was inclined to keep rates unchanged if incoming data confirmed that inflation was still cooling. In his prepared remarks he added that if August's improvement proved fleeting, a rate increase on September 15-16 "may be appropriate." Next week's consumer-price report still sits between today's print and the FOMC.
BlackRock's long-Treasury fund TLT is 0.2% higher in extended hours. The 10-year yield finished Thursday at 4.77%.
Nvidia's $12.93 billion Hugging Face deal
Nvidia, the AI chip designer, is 1.2% higher in extended hours after agreeing Thursday to buy Hugging Face, the platform more than 18 million developers use to share open models, for $12.93 billion. Chief executive Jensen Huang said Hugging Face will remain an open platform and that Nvidia chips will not be required to build or deploy through it. Nvidia said it is already the platform's largest contributor of open models.
Lululemon cuts guidance again
Lululemon Athletica, the athletic-apparel retailer, is 20.5% lower in premarket trading after cutting full-year guidance for a second time. Second-quarter revenue was $2.42 billion, down 4%, and comparable sales fell 9%, including a 12% drop in the Americas. GAAP diluted earnings of $2.92 a share included $0.86 from $134.5 million of tariff refunds. The company now sees 2026 revenue at $10.35 billion to $10.50 billion, a 5% to 7% decline, versus a prior view of flat to down 1%. Earnings guidance was cut to $9.48 to $9.73 a share from $10.95 to $11.15. Third-quarter revenue is guided 10% to 11% lower. Incoming chief executive Heidi O'Neill inherits that list.
Samsara, which sells software that connects physical operations, is 13.1% higher after reporting second-quarter revenue of $508.4 million, up 30%, and annual recurring revenue of $2.13 billion. Planet Labs, the satellite-imagery company, is 12.1% higher after revenue of $116.1 million, up 58%. Asana, the work-management software company, is 10.3% lower despite 10% revenue growth to $216.4 million.
Nikkei, crude, and gold
Japan's Nikkei 225 was at 65,020.94, up 1.3%, as of 2:25 a.m. Eastern time. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.7% and South Korea's Kospi 1.6%. Shanghai's composite fell 0.3%. In Europe, the DAX is up 0.2% at 26,090.00 as of 8:02 a.m. Eastern time; the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are little changed.
WTI crude is $90.83 a barrel, down 0.5%. The oil fund USO closed higher for a fourth straight session on Thursday. Gold is $4,516 a troy ounce, down 0.5%. State Street's gold fund GLD rose 1.8% in the prior session. The dollar index is at 99.03, down 0.6%. Bitcoin is unchanged at $81,275. The Cboe Volatility Index is 14.13.
The European Union formally joined a U.S.-led campaign to isolate Iran from the global financial system on Thursday.
Treating payrolls as the September decision is the trade. Waller's condition was always the inflation data.
Frequently asked
Why did the odds of a rate hike fall?
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would support keeping rates unchanged if incoming data confirms that inflation is still cooling.
What is expected from the upcoming payrolls report?
Forecasters expect a weak payroll gain, though economists note that late-summer estimates often undershoot because of a seasonal quirk.
What are the terms of Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face?
Nvidia agreed to buy the developer platform for $12.93 billion and will keep it open without requiring Nvidia chips to use it.