US retail sales rose 0.8% in September, mostly on higher gasoline prices
Sales outside gasoline rose 0.2%. The retail measure closest to consumer spending rose 0.1%, and wholesale prices jumped 1.3% the same morning.
Key takeaways
U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, to $745.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday, after August's gain was revised to 1.3% from 1.1%. On average, economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 0.3%, with estimates in that poll ranging from unchanged to 0.7%.
The Census figure is not adjusted for prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that the consumer price index rose 0.6% in September, after 0.4% in August, and that gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for more than half of that increase. Station receipts rose 6.4%, short of that 9.1% rise in the price of the fuel, a rough sign that drivers bought fewer gallons.
Without gasoline stations, sales rose 0.2% last month. On the Census Bureau's dollar figures, stations accounted for more than seven-tenths of the increase from August.
The retail series that corresponds most closely to consumer spending in gross domestic product leaves out autos, gasoline, building materials and food services. That control group rose 0.1% after a 1.2% gain in August, the Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 0.3%.
Reuters reported that economists expect consumer spending grew at about a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter, after 3.8% in the second. They added that the moderate spending seen outside gasoline could temper expectations for another quarter of strong growth.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve's Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions - also known as its 'Beige Book' - said most districts had "reported little or no change in overall consumer spending" from late August to early October.
Goods prices post biggest ever monthly surge
Goods prices rose 2.6% last month, the largest increase since the producer price series was first calculated in December 2009. Energy jumped 10.8% and accounted for more than 80% of the rise in goods. Producer prices for gasoline rose 20.3% and accounted for half of the increase in goods prices.
The producer price index for final demand rose 1.3% in September, after increasing 0.5% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a report released at the same time. It was the largest monthly increase since a 1.7% rise in March 2022, and more than double the 0.6% a Dow Jones survey had expected.
From a year earlier, wholesale prices were up 6.3%, the largest 12-month increase since 6.4% in December 2022. The Dow Jones survey had expected 5.5%.
Services prices rose 0.8%. Inside that total, the margin earned by retailers of automotive fuels and lubricants dropped 30.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures that margin as what the retailer keeps after the cost of the fuel, separate from the pump price that lifted station receipts.
Prices excluding food, energy and trade services, a measure that leaves out energy and retail and wholesale margins, still rose 0.5% in September, after 0.3% in August, and 5.0% over the year.
Frequently asked questions
Was September's retail sales gain bigger than expected?
Sales rose 0.8%, above the 0.3% Reuters poll and above every estimate in it.
How much of the sales increase came from gasoline stations?
On the Census Bureau's dollar figures, stations accounted for more than seven-tenths of the increase from August.
What happened to the retail measure closest to consumer spending?
That control group rose 0.1% after a 1.2% gain in August, short of the 0.3% economists expected.
How large was the same-morning jump in wholesale prices?
The producer price index for final demand rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly increase since March 2022.
