Spain's harmonized inflation rises to 5.0%, above the 4.9% forecast

Spain's National Statistics Institute estimated on Tuesday that EU-harmonized inflation, the measure Eurostat uses for the euro area, was 5.0%, up from 4.6% in August. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was 4.9%.

The national rate was 4.9%, up from 4.3% in August. That is what Funcas, a Spanish foundation, had forecast.

This is a flash estimate. The institute publishes final figures on Wednesday, October 14, and those can differ.

The institute said fuel and lubricant prices for personal vehicles rose in September, after falling in September 2025. Package-holiday prices fell, but by less than they did in September 2025.

The 4.9% national rate is the highest since February 2023, when inflation was 6%. It is the third straight monthly rise.

Core inflation, which leaves out unprocessed food and energy, was estimated at 3.1%, up from 2.9% in August. The gap between the headline rate and core widened to 1.8 percentage points, from 1.4 in August. That is what a fuel-led rise looks like.

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday, September 10, to 2.50%, the second increase this year.

The Council said the conflict in the Middle East "continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period."

The next decision is on Thursday, October 29. As of Thursday, September 24, ECB Watch put the chance of another hike on October 29 at about 60%, based on futures.

Eurostat publishes the euro-area estimate on Friday, October 2. Euro-area inflation was 3.2% in August, and Spain's September reading on the same measure is 5.0%. That print comes before the October 29 decision.