The median tactical fund gained 7.8%, no better than a 60/40 mix

The median tactical allocation fund, which shifts among stocks, bonds and other assets instead of holding a fixed split, gained 7.8% in the year through Oct. 26, 2026, no better than a 60/40 mix left unchanged. That figure covers only the funds with a full year of history.

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY gained 14.2% over the year, and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF AGG lost 1.1%. A portfolio with 60% in SPY and 40% in AGG gained 8.1%.

The category holds 46 funds and $4.4 billion. The median expense ratio is 0.91%, against 0.07% for the mix.

The quarter tested bonds, not stocks

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.44% on June 30 to 5.29% on Sept. 30, on the U.S. Treasury's daily par yield curve. On Oct. 26 it was 5%. On Sept. 16 the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75% to 4%.

AGG lost 3.5% in the quarter. SPY gained 2.4%. A 60/40 mix of SPY and AGG was about flat. The median fund in the category was about flat in the quarter too.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, began the quarter at $72 a barrel on July 1 and averaged around $104 in the last two weeks of September, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. The agency said prices climbed after military strikes resumed on July 7, and rose again in September after the United States and Iran attacked oil tankers, the United States blockaded Iranian oil exports and Ukraine struck a Russian oil terminal.

The quarter did not test a fund built to leave stocks. Stocks rose. Bonds fell, and oil surged.

The largest fund stayed in stocks

Howard Capital Management's HCM Defender 500 Index ETF LGH is the largest in the category. Its factsheet says the index generally holds large U.S. stocks and can cut that exposure to 70% stocks and 30% cash, or 40% stocks and 60% cash, or leave stocks entirely.

It did not leave. As of June 30, the factsheet showed 80.64% in common stocks, 19.26% in the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF and 0.14% in money markets.

That Direxion fund triples the S&P 500's daily move, so the stake alone equaled stock exposure of more than half the fund. With the common stocks, the fund held more exposure to stocks than it had assets.

As of Oct. 26, its holdings still showed about a fifth of the fund in that same ETF.

LGH gained 3.1% in the quarter, ahead of SPY. Over the year it gained 7.1%, about half of SPY's gain.

One fund was set for rising oil and falling bonds

American Beacon AHL Trend ETF AHLT follows price trends across more than 20 global markets. The company says it can position for prices to rise or to fall.

As of Sept. 30, American Beacon reported the fund was set for crude oil to rise and for U.S. Treasury prices to fall.

It gained 7.5% in the quarter and 20.9% over the year, the best result among the funds with a full year. It charges 0.96%.

That is one fund. The median fund was about flat in the quarter, the same as the mix, and over the year it was no better than that mix.