Tidal Trust I files two prediction-market ETFs on FOMC rate decisions

Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares filed in February to register event-contract ETFs, and those registrations did not become effective. Tidal Trust I on Tuesday filed another event-contract amendment into that same review, this time packaging CFTC-regulated contracts on Federal Open Market Committee decisions about the target federal funds rate. Marked subject to completion, Post-Effective Amendment No. 334 designates effectiveness 75 days after filing under Rule 485(a)(2), a clock that runs to Friday, November 20. Tickers, the listing venue, and management fees are left blank.

Those February registrations were tied mainly to the 2026 congressional elections and the 2028 presidential race. On Tuesday, June 30, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a request for public comment on ETFs that invest in innovative asset classes or pursue novel strategies, a request that expressly takes in event contracts. Comments were due Monday, August 31. Roundhill still states that its election funds have filed a registration statement but are not yet effective, and that money cannot be accepted until they are.

The same trust on Thursday, July 9, filed a separate post-effective amendment to add Subversive Prediction ETF and Subversive All Season Sports ETF, also marked subject to completion, also with tickers and fees left blank. Those series, like this pair, are described as seeking total return through CFTC-regulated event contracts. They have not begun trading. Tidal Investments LLC, a Tidal Financial Group company, is named as adviser on both amendments.

A consensus book and a surprise book

The Prediction Market Fed Funds Consensus ETF would seek total return through exposure to a portfolio of CFTC-regulated event contracts. It is described as an actively managed fund. Under normal market conditions it would invest at least 80% of net assets, plus any borrowings for investment purposes, in investments that provide exposure to event contracts reflecting the market consensus of the rate decision the FOMC will take at a meeting. The paper describes that book as contracts across currently scheduled FOMC meetings, about 5 to 40 at a time.

The Prediction Market Fed Funds Surprise ETF is built as the other sleeve. Its objective is to provide total return when the FOMC makes outlier decisions related to the target federal funds rate. Its 80% test points at event contracts that reflect outcomes other than that market consensus.

Neither fund is a Treasury portfolio or a fed funds futures fund. Both would obtain exposure to the event contracts primarily through over-the-counter total return swaps, under which the fund would receive the economic return of a referenced contract or basket from one or more counterparties. The paper also allows prepaid forward contracts that use event contracts as the reference asset.

The fee table leaves the management fee, other expenses, and total annual fund operating expenses as placeholders; 12b-1 fees are listed as none. In a footnote, Tidal says it will pay, or require a third party to pay, the funds' expenses other than advisory fees and a short list of excluded items. The amendment does not revise the investment objectives of Tidal Trust I's existing funds. Holders of those series are not being asked to vote, exchange, or do anything.

Binary settlement, and the paper's own warning

The contracts themselves are binary. The prospectus says the funds would take exposure at the prevailing market price of an event contract, which will typically range from $0.00 to $1.00, and that each such contract will settle at $1.00 if the referenced event occurs. The same structure settles at $0.00 if it does not. Before settlement, that market price is the implied probability.

The risk disclosure is not subtle. It states that each fund seeks exposure to investments with two potential outcomes, one of which will result in a near total loss of the fund's investment. It calls each strategy highly speculative and different from more typical investment products, and it says an investment is suitable only for investors able to risk a complete loss. Those sentences are the paper talking about the paper, not a market call.

November 20 and the February clock

Tidal's September paper does not say how a Fed-funds contract differs, for regulatory purposes, from an election contract. Will Rhind, chief executive of GraniteShares and one of the February filers, said innovative ETF products often require additional review, particularly around liquidity, market structure, and investor protections. Todd Sohn, chief ETF strategist at Strategas Securities, said delays of this kind tend to accompany any genuinely new asset class reaching the ETF wrapper. Brian Daly, director of the SEC's Division of Investment Management, has said that novel funds proposing prediction-market exposure raise questions for staff about how such a strategy would function in an ETF wrapper. The Commission's June request asked whether staff has sufficient time to review filings that seek automatic effectiveness within prescribed periods.

For these two series to trade, the registration has to become effective. Friday, November 20, is when this clock runs out. The February filings did not become effective when their clocks ran out.