Michigan consumer survey falls to 47.8 as year-ahead inflation view rises to 4.6%

Households grew more pessimistic about their budgets in early September and more convinced that prices will rise faster over the next year, an awkward pairing for Chair Kevin Warsh's Federal Open Market Committee, which already has three members on record for a hike. The University of Michigan's preliminary index fell to 47.8, the second-lowest reading since the survey began in 1952 and the weakest since May's record 44.8. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. The committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15-16.

The damage is in the year-ahead questions, not in how households described today. The current-conditions index slipped only to 50.9 from 51.9. The expectations index fell to 45.8 from 51.5, an 11% drop, and the headline is down from 51.7 in August. Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, said year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions "plunged." "With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come." Published forecasts had clustered near 51.

Inflation expectations reverse a three-month cooling

The inflation questions are the part of this survey the Fed has already said it watches. Median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.6 percentage points to 4.6% from 4.0% in August, the highest since June. The five-to-10-year measure ended a three-month run at 3.3%, ticking up to 3.4%. That is a small move, and it is the wrong direction: longer-run expectations sit above the 2.8% to 3.2% band the university has cited for 2024.

That short-term path had been cooling. One-year expectations ran from 3.4% in February to 4.8% in May, then eased to 4.6% in June, 4.2% in July and 4.0% in August. September puts them back at June's level. In the July Monetary Policy Report, the Fed noted that Michigan's 12-month measure had risen from 3.4% in February to 4.6% in June, an increase it tied to the conflict in the Middle East, while stressing that other short-term gauges had moved less.

Gasoline, CPI, and the September FOMC

This morning's consumer-price report had already put fuel back on the table. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the CPI-U rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months; gasoline jumped 3.9% on the month and 27.4% from a year earlier, accounting for more than a third of the monthly increase. Fuel oil rose 10.1% in August and 52% year over year. Core prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.27 a gallon as of Thursday, September 10.

The committee has held the federal funds target at 3.50% to 3.75% all year. On July 29, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. On Thursday, CNBC put futures-implied odds of a hike next week at 70% after a wholesale-price report and with crude back above $100. After this morning's CPI, those odds jumped to nearly 90%, a repricing CNBC tied to the inflation print rather than to the 10 a.m. survey.

Consumer funds are weaker this month

Consumer-sector funds were higher with the market Friday morning. The past month is the more useful window: discretionary and retail funds have already been sliding.

The consumer-discretionary fund AXLY, which etf.net grades A against other broad discretionary funds, is a poor stand-in for household spending.

Together they are 43% of the book. The modified-equal-weight retail fund BXRT, graded B, is the closer spending proxy, with 75 holdings and no position above 2.4%. Staples fund AXLP, graded A, is led by Walmart, Costco, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble, the names that typically absorb a squeeze at the pump more slowly than retailers.

The university will publish the final September survey on Friday, September 25. The FOMC statement is due first, at 2 p.m. Eastern on September 16. The committee will vote on a preliminary print it cannot yet see revised.